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BERTHA ATTEMPTING TO JUMP BACK OFFSHORE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WED NIGHT. Tropical Storm Warning issued west of Cameron, LA to Sargent, TX

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 651 (Milton), US Major: 651 (Milton), FL Any: 651 (Milton), FL Major: 651 (Milton)

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Archives 2020s >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2733
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Milton Lounge
Wed Oct 09 2024 01:06 AM

In addition to more standard and traditional tropical cyclone models, for the next 24-48 hours or so, I'm going to share some others that I typically would not. The reason I am including these others falls into one or both of two categories:

1. It is expected that Milton will begin extra-tropical transition to a lesser or greater extent roughly about the time it is making landfall (just before, during, or just after), and as such, I will be sharing non-tropical models that are often better at handling sub-tropical systems.

2. Models that look to have a better initial grasp on Milton's present intensity and/or location and/or steering. These may include select ensemble members.

These models should be considered with the caveat that they are neither designed for TCs and/or the operational runs, but may have increasing utility going forward. Also, where Globals are concerned (e.g. GFS), we can ignore their forecast minimum pressure. Globals almost always underbid MSLP.

I will flag these posts with the header NON-STANDARD MODELS

NON-STANDARD MODELS

GFS Member #1 from 09/0z run valid Thursday morning (10th) at 4AM EDT (predawn)

GFS Member #3 from 09/0z run valid Wednesday evening 7PM EDT

GFS Member # 8 from 09/0z run valid Thursday the10th at 1AM EDT (middle of the night)

GFS Member #28 from 09/0z run valid Wednesday night 10PM EDT

NAM3K (Convection Allowing Model) from 09/0z run valid Thursday the 10th at 4AM EDT (predawn)

RRFSA (Convection Allowing Model) from 09/0z run valid Thursday the 10th at 12AM EDT (midnight tomorrow night)

Edit: Several models now show no complete transition to extra-tropical ("Post-Tropical" as it is now called with regard to TCs), until after Milton has crossed the state and entered the W Atlantic, and indeed with the 1AM CDT NHC Advisory, the official forecast now calls for Milton to remain a Tropical Cyclone well into the Atlantic. This may limit the usefulness of the two Convection Allowing Models shared above.

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Oct 09 2024 01:57 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 01:06 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 04:08 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Wed Oct 09 2024 04:45 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 04:56 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Wed Oct 09 2024 05:31 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Rhino7170	Wed Oct 09 2024 05:45 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 06:20 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Rhino7170	Wed Oct 09 2024 08:13 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Wed Oct 09 2024 08:34 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 08:39 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Wed Oct 09 2024 10:09 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 08:37 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Rhino7170	Wed Oct 09 2024 06:29 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 07:18 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 07:24 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Wed Oct 09 2024 06:25 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Wed Oct 09 2024 06:13 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 05:19 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 04:14 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Wed Oct 09 2024 04:33 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 12:27 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Wed Oct 09 2024 01:53 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 01:58 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	bob3d	Wed Oct 09 2024 02:17 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 02:23 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	bob3d	Wed Oct 09 2024 12:37 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Ed Ardzinski	Wed Oct 09 2024 01:18 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 11:39 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Thu Oct 10 2024 11:35 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 01:50 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 01:06 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 08 2024 05:20 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Tue Oct 08 2024 07:22 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 08 2024 11:19 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	OrlandoDan	Tue Oct 08 2024 11:28 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	OrlandoDan	Wed Oct 09 2024 05:40 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 06:46 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	MikeC	Wed Oct 09 2024 07:38 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	bob3d	Wed Oct 09 2024 07:41 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Ed Ardzinski	Wed Oct 09 2024 09:58 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 09 2024 10:06 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 10:41 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Wed Oct 09 2024 11:28 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Wed Oct 09 2024 11:23 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 09 2024 11:30 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	vineyardsaker	Tue Oct 08 2024 06:00 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 08 2024 03:56 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	kellyr	Tue Oct 08 2024 05:01 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 08 2024 07:05 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 08 2024 05:07 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 08 2024 04:04 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 08 2024 04:22 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	chase 22	Tue Oct 08 2024 06:25 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TheQueensBarge	Tue Oct 08 2024 05:00 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 07 2024 09:41 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Mon Oct 07 2024 10:24 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 07 2024 09:26 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Psyber	Mon Oct 07 2024 10:05 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Tue Oct 08 2024 06:27 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Oct 08 2024 08:08 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Tue Oct 08 2024 09:07 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Bloodstar	Tue Oct 08 2024 10:41 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Oct 08 2024 10:49 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Tue Oct 08 2024 11:00 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Tue Oct 08 2024 12:47 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 08 2024 01:34 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Owlguin	Tue Oct 08 2024 01:24 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Ed Ardzinski	Tue Oct 08 2024 12:18 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	GeorgeN	Tue Oct 08 2024 03:03 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Bloodstar	Tue Oct 08 2024 03:53 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 08 2024 10:04 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Oct 08 2024 10:30 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Lautermilch	Tue Oct 08 2024 11:25 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 08 2024 01:25 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	TXEB	Tue Oct 08 2024 12:32 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 08 2024 07:48 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Rhino7170	Tue Oct 08 2024 12:25 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 07 2024 04:27 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 07 2024 11:14 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Oct 07 2024 04:04 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 07 2024 04:20 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Oct 07 2024 04:32 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Mon Oct 07 2024 04:58 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	MichaelA	Mon Oct 07 2024 07:23 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Mon Oct 07 2024 07:22 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 07 2024 07:43 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Psyber	Mon Oct 07 2024 08:38 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 07 2024 04:44 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Oct 06 2024 05:11 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sun Oct 06 2024 06:12 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Oct 06 2024 08:09 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Sun Oct 06 2024 10:10 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Oct 06 2024 11:34 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Ed Ardzinski	Sun Oct 06 2024 12:15 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	bob3d	Sun Oct 06 2024 12:28 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	criscr0smind	Sun Oct 06 2024 01:34 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 06 2024 01:55 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 06 2024 03:09 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Oct 06 2024 03:44 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	bob3d	Sun Oct 06 2024 05:06 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Oct 07 2024 09:02 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Mon Oct 07 2024 11:29 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Oct 07 2024 02:27 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	bob3d	Mon Oct 07 2024 11:13 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Oct 07 2024 09:51 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Oct 07 2024 02:09 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Mon Oct 07 2024 03:49 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Ed Ardzinski	Mon Oct 07 2024 09:42 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sun Oct 06 2024 03:38 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sun Oct 06 2024 02:33 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Sun Oct 06 2024 04:23 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Oct 06 2024 02:41 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Sun Oct 06 2024 01:26 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 06 2024 12:27 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 05 2024 11:08 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Oct 06 2024 06:39 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 06 2024 07:08 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Sun Oct 06 2024 08:02 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Sun Oct 06 2024 09:01 AM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 05 2024 08:35 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	MikeC	Sat Oct 05 2024 09:13 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Sat Oct 05 2024 09:50 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 05 2024 07:53 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 05 2024 03:41 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sat Oct 05 2024 04:35 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	JMII	Sat Oct 05 2024 06:21 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 05 2024 06:01 PM
Re: Milton Lounge	Kraig	Sat Oct 05 2024 06:17 PM
Re: Early Oct Invest 92L	cieldumort	Fri Oct 04 2024 10:32 PM
Re: Early Oct Invest 92L	JMII	Sat Oct 05 2024 06:27 AM
Re: Early Oct Invest 92L	IsoFlame	Sat Oct 05 2024 09:32 AM
Re: Early Oct Invest 92L	MikeC	Sat Oct 05 2024 10:09 AM
Re: Early Oct Invest 92L	bob3d	Sat Oct 05 2024 12:03 PM
Re: Early Oct Invest 92L	OrlandoDan	Sat Oct 05 2024 12:49 PM
Re: Early Oct Invest 92L	cieldumort	Fri Oct 04 2024 08:42 PM
Re: Early Oct Invest 92L	MichaelA	Fri Oct 04 2024 09:42 PM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	cieldumort	Sat Sep 28 2024 10:31 PM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	JMII	Mon Sep 30 2024 07:03 AM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	bob3d	Mon Sep 30 2024 01:56 PM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	JMII	Tue Oct 01 2024 06:43 AM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	Owlguin	Fri Oct 04 2024 12:43 PM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	IsoFlame	Fri Oct 04 2024 04:29 PM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	Lamar-Plant City	Fri Oct 04 2024 04:59 PM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	JMII	Fri Oct 04 2024 05:18 PM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	JumadukeFL	Sat Oct 05 2024 08:51 PM
Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof	MikeC	Sat Sep 28 2024 10:44 AM

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