With hurricane models given an opportunity to play catch-up with the actual intensity and organization of Oscar, the 18z runs out today are coming in hot. These are all plausible, but need to be tempered with the understanding that Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, susceptible to rapid decreases of intensity and organization, not just increases.
The structure of Oscar on IR satellite as of 23z does not line up well with the 18z forecasts below.
Some of today's primary 18z Hurricane Model Runs
HAFS-A: Crosses Grand Turk by 0z as a Cat 3. (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Landfall mid-morning tomorrow, the 20th, on southeast Cuba as a Cat 4.
HAFS-B: Crosses by Grand Turk by 0z as a Cat 2/3 (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Scrapes by Grand Inagua, Bahamas predawn tomorrow as a Cat 5. Landfall on southeast Cuba midday tomorrow, the 20th, as a Cat 4/5.
HWRF: Crosses Big Amergris Cay by 0z as a Cat 3 (Unsupported by tonight's IR). Landfall on extreme southeast Cuba midday tomorrow as a Cat 2.
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