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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

IsoFlame
Weather Analyst

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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...

Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib
Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM

Slower evolution of any Caribbean system(s) given last days-worth of modeling. Some runs suggest formation of a pair of lows- one scooting off to the NE and the other pinned down in the Caribbean Sea by a blocking high to the north, so system remains south of the islands strengthening over what Brian Norcross says is currently "the warmest (upper 80's)/deepest water on the planet".

My gut feeling remains about the same... a slowly evolving TC remaining nearly stationary in the Caribbean, then drifting north across Haiti or eastern tip of Cuba into the Bahamas as a tropical storm (possibly becoming a hybrid system) the week after Election Day. That's as far out as I care to conjugate at this time.

Bottom line for the Milton-battered, extremely vulnerable beaches of east central Florida north of the Cape... more coastal erosion likely through Halloween well into November.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Oct 29 2024 01:05 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	cieldumort	Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	cieldumort	Thu Oct 24 2024 12:20 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 24 2024 02:43 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Fri Oct 25 2024 08:58 AM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	IsoFlame	Tue Oct 29 2024 01:02 PM
Re: Late Oct/Early Nov Carib	Owlguin	Wed Oct 30 2024 03:44 PM

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