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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Sara Lounge
      Fri Nov 08 2024 12:03 PM

Models and ensemble members are increasingly warming up to the idea that a broad area of low pressure will form in the central to western Caribbean or across Central America later this coming weekend or next week, and out of this region a tropical cyclone could develop as soon as early next week to around the middle of the month. Generally, operational and ensemble member runs suggest about a 40% chance of TC genesis in this region, which would immediately be landlocked, and as such, we are starting a Lounge on this modeled feature.







An area of enhanced showers and thunderstorms associated with one of the approaching tropical waves set to interact with the developing broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean is continuing to show more early indications of TCG potential and is likely to become the center of focus for the next Invest tag to be assigned. The title will be updated accordingly.
2024-11-11 20z

The area of interest we are tracking has just been Invest tagged 99L and the title has been updated accordingly.
2024-11-12-18z

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen
4:00 PM EST Wed Nov 13
Location: 16.2°N 79.0°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph

Sara 11-14-24 1PM CDT

Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Nov 14 2024 01:20 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Sara Lounge cieldumort Fri Nov 08 2024 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Nineteen Lounge cieldumort   Wed Nov 13 2024 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Nineteen Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 14 2024 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Wed Nov 13 2024 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Nov 13 2024 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 13 2024 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 13 2024 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 13 2024 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Nov 12 2024 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD cieldumort   Tue Nov 12 2024 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD JMII   Tue Nov 12 2024 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean Invest TBD IsoFlame   Tue Nov 12 2024 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Mid Nov Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Nov 11 2024 11:56 AM

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