Among the ECMWF and GFS ensemble members, there is a clear pattern of tracking towards Florida if NINETEEN ramps up quickly and begins pulling poleward without running into land early. This solution is in the minority as of 18z. Most members show the cyclone taking longer to ramp up, and thus tracking more westerly early on, consequently also running into and over land for longer, with little substantial recovery if and when once in the Gulf.
Without having had the benefit of any recon missions today or microwave passes of any real quality, it is difficult yet to discern which solution is more likely. Recon should be in NINETEEN tomorrow, however.
Based on IR and pseudo-VIS satellite imagery, the system may be trending west-southwesterly, in the general cyclonic flow of the regional gyre.
18z ECWMF and GFS ensemble members below credit Weathernerds.org
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