Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995

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The Atlantic is cooler than average this year by 2 degrees, but that won't affect the number of tropical systems much if at all. Last year we only got one system from that region. The rest was from the Gulf and the Caribbean which I think is going to happen this year too. Prediction: 20 named storms.

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While 20 may be a little above what I'll say (thinking 16-17 ATM), I'm in TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH with western Caribbean and GOMEX being the where the bulk of TC's ultimately develop. That's not to say that the Atlantic won't sow some impressive long-lived waves that search for favorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. Check out today's 12z GFS run that suggests around May 20 a strong pre-season TC will come up from the south, cross Cuba into the Bahamas:

GFS

Last several runs have been consistent with this thought. We'll see...

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Mon May 05 2025 02:17 PM)

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