Model's are struggling getting a handle on this system. GFS is weak, but it's really not showing the current state very well either. Further south this thing gets the more likely it is to develop in the Gulf. I think the Icon is the worst case (Far west), middle of the road like the canadian is more likely. However, if it does manage to get going sooner than anticipated (I.e. right off the bat in the Gulf) it has a pretty decent chance to gain strength. If it struggles in the Gulf initially it'll likely remain weak. It's a prime candidate for things to change quickly with it, Conditions are more favorable than Chantal had for development, , so it's something to watch very closely throughout the week for sure. 2pm outlook keeps it at 20% though.
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