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Watching a 20% area in the east Antialnic. Conditions ahead of it are not very condusive for development. Right now, odds keep it likely weak/no development and it curves east of Bermuda.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 323 (Milton) , Major: 323 (Milton) Florida - Any: 323 (Milton) Major: 323 (Milton)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Dexter and Pos. Spawn
      Mon Aug 04 2025 11:17 AM

Dexter may have gotten stronger than advertised overnight, but there is not much in the way of nearby buoys, ships, etc., and no recon whatsoever. The cyclone is on a bit of a downtrend this morning in response to some moderate shear, but may have a few shots of intensification before undergoing either extratropical transition or dissipation in a few days.


The "spawn" or "sibling" of Dexter modeled by several runs of several different models is looking even less uncertain today, with a couple all but dropping the expectation, with others pushing off any sort of development out another few days (itself a trend that sometimes signals things aren't looking so good for development). Those recent runs that do cook something up have it come into the southeastern US weaker than most prior runs. The 202508040z EPS implied development odds are roughly 40% within 4 days, but also unanimously keep anything that forms weak (although "weak" does not mean without potential impacts, esp water/flood risk).

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Dexter and Pos. Spawn cieldumort Mon Aug 04 2025 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dexter and Pos. Spawn cieldumort   Mon Aug 04 2025 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dexter and Pos. Spawn cieldumort   Sun Aug 03 2025 11:35 PM
. * * Re: 95L and Pos. Spawn Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 03 2025 10:21 AM

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