Interestingly the 12z GFS has shifted back west toward Cape Canaveral
Icon shifted to be SSW of Bermuda, but the 12z Euro still keeps it east of Bermuda. Euro still likes the followup wave better and
My guess for the track of this area is still somewhere in the middle, which may make it get closer to Bermuda (but not much... still safely east), but very unlikely to get to the US mainland.
The followup behind this wave is the one the Euro really likes. However, MDR may be a little more favorable overall on some parameters -- but not all, it's still not enough to support something larger, although it makes it more likely for later when the waves get further west.
Both major models show a follow able area on Friday, which is probably the day the models start to reconcile a bit more.
Ensembles spell out the more likely paths I think
The gfs ensembes (GEFS) has also backed off quite a bit on the idea of the first wave making all the way west. It's also making me watch the area over the Bahamas now. (See the ensemble members that start in the Gulf) The wave east of the wave in the outlook is still the favored one by the euro set.
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