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Watching a 20% area in the east Antialnic. Conditions ahead of it are not very condusive for development. Right now, odds keep it likely weak/no development and it curves east of Bermuda.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 326 (Milton) , Major: 326 (Milton) Florida - Any: 326 (Milton) Major: 326 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
      Fri Aug 08 2025 06:50 AM

Overnight runs, except for the Canadian, miss the Caribbean Islands. The Euro now recurves the system before the southeast, but threatens new England. The 0z GFS has a south Florida then gulf then Destin hit. There's a long track system coming, although probably days before anything develops so the door is pretty wide open. Any land impacts are 10-15 days out, assuming it doesn't curve before then.

The 6z GFS makes no us landfall at all, but gets very close to the Outer Banks and Cape Cod / Martha's Vineyard (brushes by) as well as brushes Nova Scotia. The notable thing about the 6z gfs is how long it keeps 96L around as a hurricane, which seems to impact the waves track.

One notable thing about the 6z run this morning it stalls 96L in the central atlantic for days.

Something to watch closely over the next two weeks, but nothing definitive or overly concerning now, The current model run set don't even really develop anything for another week, where prior ones did around tue-wed of next week.

last frame of 0z euro


0z gfs
=
0z canadain (Weak south of Hispaniola)


euro ensemble spread


In short no guarantee for land impacts, but enough to monitor it for a while. Ensembles + Climatology shifts the odds to very slightly favor no landfall right now.



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* General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 08 2025 06:50 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 02 2025 03:05 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge Kraig   Tue Aug 05 2025 09:20 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jul 31 2025 12:31 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 18 2025 07:33 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jul 18 2025 01:57 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 26 2025 07:51 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 28 2025 12:55 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 28 2025 07:35 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 29 2025 06:40 AM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2025 04:00 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Jul 27 2025 01:36 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge bob3d   Mon Jul 28 2025 04:43 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2025 07:09 AM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 05 2025 07:37 AM
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