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A wave in the east Atlantic now has a 70% chance for development, no invest tag. As of right now, odds favor a recruve before the Caribbean islands, but it may be close. Leewards and Bermuda should keep watch during the week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 328 (Milton) , Major: 328 (Milton) Florida - Any: 328 (Milton) Major: 328 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4786
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: General Long Range Lounge
      Fri Aug 08 2025 01:25 PM

12z gfs has a few notable changes, it develops the system fairly quickly, gets it to a depression by Sunday or Monday, possibly a storm by Tuesday, and also kicks 96l out of the picture much sooner. Giving some time for a ridge to build west, which it takes advantage of and moves over the Bahamas through the Florida straits and into the Gulf, making landfall in Texas.

I'll be curious to see the other models and ensembles and if that shifts them more westward or not.

--

It did some, but most still recurve, Euro AI recurves this run. However the operation euro does get further west/stronger at 12z and makes landfall in Eastern NC then goes over the outer banks and makes another landfall still really strong over Massachusetts.




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* General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 08 2025 01:25 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 02 2025 03:05 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge Kraig   Tue Aug 05 2025 09:20 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jul 31 2025 12:31 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jul 17 2025 12:41 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 18 2025 07:33 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jul 18 2025 01:57 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 15 2025 09:06 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 22 2025 12:41 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 23 2025 08:25 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 25 2025 07:26 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 26 2025 07:51 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jun 27 2025 02:04 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 28 2025 12:55 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 28 2025 07:35 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 29 2025 06:40 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2025 06:03 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Tue Jul 08 2025 03:06 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Thu Jul 24 2025 04:17 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 24 2025 07:35 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 25 2025 06:29 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 25 2025 02:48 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 26 2025 02:04 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 27 2025 09:04 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Sun Jul 27 2025 01:05 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 19 2025 11:51 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 28 2025 08:10 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 29 2025 06:21 AM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 02 2025 04:58 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 03 2025 11:05 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 03 2025 12:14 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Aug 06 2025 02:16 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 06 2025 06:54 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 07 2025 06:49 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Aug 07 2025 02:52 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 07 2025 07:28 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 08 2025 06:50 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 08 2025 01:25 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 02 2025 07:54 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Thu Aug 28 2025 01:45 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2025 08:36 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 01 2025 07:55 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 25 2025 09:57 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2025 04:00 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2025 01:22 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2025 10:00 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Aug 15 2025 09:01 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 10 2025 08:02 AM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 05 2025 01:46 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 30 2025 06:40 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 30 2025 12:51 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Wed Jul 30 2025 02:25 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Jul 27 2025 01:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Jul 28 2025 03:14 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge bob3d   Mon Jul 28 2025 04:43 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2025 07:09 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 10 2025 08:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jul 11 2025 03:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 12 2025 06:52 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 16 2025 05:07 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 03 2025 07:03 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Jun 03 2025 10:04 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 05 2025 07:37 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 08 2025 07:38 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 10 2025 07:31 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Jun 11 2025 01:57 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jun 13 2025 05:18 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 14 2025 04:12 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 01 2025 05:20 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 31 2025 07:54 PM
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