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Now looking at a chance for two TDs in the Atlantic (low threat to land), but likely development in the Pacific nearing Hawaii.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 668 (Milton), US Major: 668 (Milton), FL Any: 668 (Milton), FL Major: 668 (Milton)

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Archives 2020s >> 2025 Forecast Lounge

MikeC
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Posts: 4836
Loc: Orlando, FL

Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)
Sat Aug 09 2025 06:28 AM

The 6z GFS curves the system out to sea just west of Bermuda, in the mid-range of the ensembles here. This is similar to yesterday's 18z run. (the 12z was all the way to Texas, so it's jumping around)

This system staying offshore remains the most likely outcome, but not by a comfortable margin. GEFS mean is west of the GFS operational run, and is pretty close to the northeast. The overall spread runs from roughly the TX/LA Border to Bermuda beyond 10 days.

6z GFS closest approach to Caribbean Islands

6z run staying east of the bahamas

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Erin Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 09 2025 06:28 AM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 18 2025 03:46 AM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	Bloodstar	Mon Aug 18 2025 09:23 PM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 16 2025 05:27 PM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 16 2025 02:48 PM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 16 2025 10:00 AM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 13 2025 07:26 AM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	CFHC	Wed Aug 13 2025 02:49 PM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 13 2025 05:32 PM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 14 2025 06:22 AM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Aug 14 2025 11:29 AM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 15 2025 06:45 AM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 16 2025 10:46 AM
Re: Erin Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 16 2025 01:54 PM
Re: 97L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 10 2025 10:55 AM
Re: 97L - East Atlantic Wave (40%)	cieldumort	Sun Aug 10 2025 10:38 AM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	MikeC	Sat Aug 09 2025 06:28 AM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	MikeC	Sat Aug 09 2025 02:11 PM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	MikeC	Sun Aug 10 2025 07:15 AM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	MikeC	Sun Aug 10 2025 12:38 PM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	MikeC	Mon Aug 11 2025 06:47 AM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	MikeC	Mon Aug 11 2025 06:58 PM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	MikeC	Mon Aug 11 2025 08:40 PM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	MikeC	Tue Aug 12 2025 07:21 AM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	Kraig	Tue Aug 12 2025 04:58 PM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)	OrlandoDan	Tue Aug 12 2025 12:48 PM

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