Overnight model runs have kept back at the right, including the Hafs models, both are north of 20 north again.
Bermuda should watch closely. It's still in monitoring mode in the Caribbean/Bahamas and US, but chances for direct impact on them are lower today than yesterday.
6z GFS is very close to Bermuda on August 20th, euro is further west, but far enough east of North Carolina for no direct impacts except high surf.
The chances for US impacts are mostly in eastern North Carolina and new england, but unlikely for any direct impact.
For intensity, conditions aren't great in the Main Development Region, and easterlies are strong enough to keep it weak (or even have a mid/llc split for a period). But once past 60W conditions improve rapidly, especially around 50W where it'll likely be extremely conductive for development.
Two troughs, one to the northeast and another closer to Tennessee may have an impact down the road, so it's not completely clear cut. But between this is the lane out for a recurve. Meaning the Mid Atlantic, Bahamas, and Caribbean islands can't let any guard down, but Bermuda is still most likely to be closest to it.
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