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Tropical Storm Conditions nearing Nrn Leewards from Jerry. In the EPAC, Priscilla remnants look to bring SW US significant flooding threat next several days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 365 (Milton) , Major: 365 (Milton) Florida - Any: 365 (Milton) Major: 365 (Milton)
TS Jerry
ADV#11A 2:00 am EDT
18.5N 62.1W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Nw at 16 mph
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subTS Karen
ADV#1 11:00 pm EDT
44.5N 33.0W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 998mb
Moving:
Ne at 9 mph
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 91
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)
      Tue Aug 12 2025 04:58 PM

Given the lack of thunderstorms all day, I'm kinda surprised that NHC has not downgraded Erin to a TD. Even the ASCAT pass this morning showed a single barb of 36kt, mentioned in the 11am discussion yet they didn't change the intensity when the same pattern continued all day. We have seen several unnamed systems in the last year or so, including 2 off the Carolinas last summer that had better organization, banding and measured winds to get at least TD if not TS status. And there is a great swath of dry air directly in the path of Erin, and the 19kt forward speed is bringing it very close to her moisture envelope. If Erin survives until Friday, she may get a second shot at survival. Curious to watch the next few days....

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Erin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 12 2025 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 18 2025 03:46 AM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge Bloodstar   Mon Aug 18 2025 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 16 2025 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 16 2025 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 16 2025 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 13 2025 07:26 AM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Aug 13 2025 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 13 2025 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2025 06:22 AM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Aug 14 2025 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2025 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2025 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Erin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2025 01:54 PM
. * * Re: 97L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 10 2025 10:55 AM
. * * Re: 97L - East Atlantic Wave (40%) cieldumort   Sun Aug 10 2025 10:38 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 09 2025 06:28 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 09 2025 02:11 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 10 2025 07:15 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 10 2025 12:38 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 11 2025 06:47 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 11 2025 06:58 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 11 2025 08:40 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 12 2025 07:21 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) Kraig   Tue Aug 12 2025 04:58 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%) OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 12 2025 12:48 PM

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