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#Kiko in the Central Pacific forecast to move north of Hawaii. 91L down to 30% with development very unlikely. Quiet mid september in the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 332 (Milton) , Major: 332 (Milton) Florida - Any: 332 (Milton) Major: 332 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4791
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: General Long Range Lounge
      Tue Sep 02 2025 07:54 PM

Models haven't changed all that much, still a potential threat to the Leeward islands, and moreso Bermuda. Ensembles have widened today, although most still recurve. Things like the GFS show a bit of a hook after Bermuda, so trends need to be watched, but a US landfall is still extremely unlikely.

Still, the most likely outcome, as of tonight, is that the area in the East Atlantic will recurve near/east of the Leewards and get close to Bermuda. However, a weaker storm in the MDR has a higher chance of getting much closer to the islands (where it could strengthen quickly). So leewards definitely need to monitor.

Euro AI doesn't develop thi sat all, the 18z euro is much further south than the 12z, 18z GFS ensembles are all recurving east of the islands

It may get invest tagged tomorrow, but it's dependent on if a llc or even coherant convective area can be estimated. (Right now it can't)


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* General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 02 2025 07:54 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 02 2025 03:05 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge Kraig   Tue Aug 05 2025 09:20 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jul 31 2025 12:31 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jul 17 2025 12:41 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 18 2025 07:33 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jul 18 2025 01:57 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 15 2025 09:06 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 22 2025 12:41 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 23 2025 08:25 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 25 2025 07:26 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 26 2025 07:51 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jun 27 2025 02:04 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 28 2025 12:55 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 28 2025 07:35 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 29 2025 06:40 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2025 06:03 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Tue Jul 08 2025 03:06 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Thu Jul 24 2025 04:17 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 24 2025 07:35 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 25 2025 06:29 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 25 2025 02:48 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 26 2025 02:04 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 27 2025 09:04 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Sun Jul 27 2025 01:05 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 19 2025 11:51 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 28 2025 08:10 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 29 2025 06:21 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 02 2025 04:26 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 02 2025 04:58 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 03 2025 11:05 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 03 2025 12:14 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 03 2025 07:07 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 04 2025 01:17 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 04 2025 07:05 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 04 2025 12:37 PM
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. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 04 2025 09:46 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 05 2025 09:56 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 06 2025 07:39 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Aug 06 2025 02:16 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 06 2025 06:54 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 06 2025 07:40 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 07 2025 06:49 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Aug 07 2025 02:52 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 07 2025 07:28 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 08 2025 06:50 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 08 2025 01:25 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 08 2025 04:12 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 09 2025 05:36 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 02 2025 07:54 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 03 2025 07:30 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Sep 03 2025 10:56 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Thu Aug 28 2025 01:45 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2025 08:36 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 01 2025 07:55 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 25 2025 10:23 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 26 2025 07:59 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 25 2025 07:26 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 25 2025 09:57 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2025 04:00 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2025 01:22 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2025 10:00 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Aug 15 2025 09:01 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 10 2025 08:02 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 05 2025 08:11 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 05 2025 01:46 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 30 2025 06:40 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 30 2025 12:51 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Wed Jul 30 2025 02:25 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Jul 27 2025 01:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Jul 28 2025 03:14 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge bob3d   Mon Jul 28 2025 04:43 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2025 07:09 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 10 2025 08:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jul 11 2025 03:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 12 2025 06:52 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 16 2025 05:07 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 03 2025 07:03 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Jun 03 2025 10:04 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 05 2025 07:37 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 08 2025 07:38 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 10 2025 07:31 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Wed Jun 11 2025 01:57 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jun 13 2025 05:18 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 14 2025 04:12 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 01 2025 05:20 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 30 2025 10:56 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 30 2025 01:19 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 31 2025 07:54 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 30 2025 01:33 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Lounge IsoFlame   Fri May 30 2025 08:35 AM

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