12z icon is north of the islands, so is the Canadaian and GFS, however GFS gets pulled west by an ULL this run and eventually makes landfall around Edisto Beach in South Carolina, putting Charleston in the right front quadrant of the storm (worst surge).
GFS is a massive shift left from earlier runs, so It'll be important to monitor for changes or if it flips back later.
Confidence in forecast is already pretty low with the spread in ensembles between the google, euro, and gfs sets. Most likely is near/east of the Caribbean islands and a recruve still, but confidence in that is dropping. Needs a few more model runs an invest certainty to help. Euro is really weak on the 12z run, but does get into the Caribbean. An upper level low and TUTT are the major features stirring it up. There is likely going to be a lot of run to run variance in the models for a while. For exaple the 12z gfs ensembles still all recurve east of the islands despite the operational not doing so.
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Re: E ATL Wave (Invest TBD)
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