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Both basins now potentially threatening: Pacific #HurricaneKiko drawing closer to Hawaii #HIWX Atlantic: #91L drawing closer to Caribbean and #HurricaneLorena impacting Baja and SWUS #AZWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Milton) , Major: 331 (Milton) Florida - Any: 331 (Milton) Major: 331 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2602
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave)
      Fri Sep 05 2025 11:13 AM

With many hours of daylight providing a much better look at 91L, the environment for development is probably even more difficult for it to develop than things looked overnight. Most waves out in the Tropical Atlantic can't quite seem to catch a break this season.

Unsurprisingly, several models have now dropped development altogether, and as noted above, the number of bullish ensemble members have also been decreasing. While NHC holds at 60% by Sunday and 90% within 7 days, realistically we may see this get lowered to something like 50% by Sunday and 70% within 7 days. I'm now in the 50% within 48 and 70% within 7 days camp myself, and going lower if current trends continue into the weekend.

That said, a coin toss within 48 hours is still worthy of tracking for the Caribbean, especially considering that an initially weaker system would probably favor a southerly track with less odds of out-to-sea.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) cieldumort Fri Sep 05 2025 11:13 AM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) cieldumort   Fri Sep 05 2025 02:01 AM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) cieldumort   Fri Sep 05 2025 01:16 AM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) cieldumort   Thu Sep 04 2025 12:32 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) IsoFlame   Thu Sep 04 2025 12:47 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 04 2025 01:59 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 04 2025 07:26 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 05 2025 06:20 AM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) cieldumort   Fri Sep 05 2025 11:13 AM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge (E ATL Wave) IsoFlame   Thu Sep 04 2025 04:35 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave (Invest TBD) CFHCAdministrator   Wed Sep 03 2025 01:39 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave (Invest TBD) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 04 2025 07:41 AM

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