I think its fair to say that the folks who really dig in to making long range seasonal forecasts every year are a bit stunned by how 2025 is turning out so far.
We always have our preseason contest here, and I think we all try to do our best in the name of funzies, and so far, mine is looking pretty toast. Predictions made prior to early August are working off of very light info, subject to changes that typically do not materialize until August. And a lot of professional forecasting groups (universities, companies, etc.) that also made forecasts prior to August get the same pass as we do. However, most forecasts made since August have continued with the expectation of an above-average to very active year once all is said and done, and that is becoming more and more difficult to envision verifying.
Just some thoughts as I point out that very few models, aside from our solo bull this season, the GFS, show anything of interest with much consistency over the next couple of weeks(!!) This is incredible.
0z ECMWF has a sloppy depression or two at best forming out to the end-of-run at 360 hours 0z ICON also has perhaps a sloppy depression or two at best out to the end of its run at 180 hours 0z CMC, copy and paste from above, out to 240 hours 0z AIFS, copy and paste, out to the end of its run at 360 hours
At the moment, it almost looks like the easiest way for the Atlantic basin to see something form that gets any stronger than a TD, would be for a cross-over from the extreme eastern Pacific to find its way into the southwestern Gulf and/or for a CAG to toss one out over on this side of Central America.
Pretty phenomenal state of both the East Pac and Atlantic basins for a cool-neutral ENSO year: Active Eastern and Central Pacific, and relatively lifeless Atlantic.
A major shift in some large sub-seasonal players, such as the MJO, might have to turn very favorable for Atlantic-side development, to break this pattern.
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