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Activity continues getting deflected away from the US with Invest #97L set to recurve soon. Nice to watch systems this far away from any land.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 368 (Milton) , Major: 368 (Milton) Florida - Any: 368 (Milton) Major: 368 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2633
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: General Long Range Lounge
Mon Sep 08 2025 07:43 PM

There are a few features in the basin that look interesting, and during any usual "peak" of a season one could expect something to come of them, but at the moment, conditions for development are running marginal to outright hostile. Nonetheless, a few items of interest as mentioned here and elsewhere include, from closest to land to farthest out:

1. A stalled frontal boundary draped across the Gulf up into the offshore waters of the southeastern US with a few attendant areas of weak low pressure.

2. Whatever is left of the northern extent of former Invest 91L now rounding the Lesser Antilles

3.Wave approaching northeastern South America/southern Lesser Antilles.

4. Wave east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 23W from 17N southward

Big picture-wise, #1 is riddled with shear and it is not obvious how something other than a hybrid could cook up during the next week out of this, unless shear dramatically lessens over crucial portions of the boundary and/or crucial portions of the boundary drift further out south/east out of the range of the high shear zones.

#2 (x 91L) Pretty difficult to see this developing. Maybe fair to give it 2% within 7 days, or one-out-of-fifty odds.

#3 Might be something to keep an eye on if it starts to cook up some persistent deep convection and manages to pull north of South America in time. Perhaps a mention in tomorrow's TWO could be introduced on this feature by NHC depending on how it fairs tonight/overnight.

#4 Has some soft model support. Unfortunately for this wave, the Tropical Atlantic is still loaded with wave kryptonite this season.

Above: SW Atlantic surface analysis 9-8-25-1800z

Above: Atlantic basin shear analysis and shear tendency as of 9-8-25-2100z

Above: Atlantic basin dry air as of 9-8-25-2100z

Above: #3 approaching northeastern South America

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Sep 08 2025 07:43 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 02 2025 03:05 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	Kraig	Tue Aug 05 2025 09:20 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Jul 31 2025 12:31 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Jul 17 2025 12:41 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri Jul 18 2025 07:33 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Fri Jul 18 2025 01:57 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jun 15 2025 09:06 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jun 22 2025 12:41 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jun 23 2025 08:25 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jun 25 2025 07:26 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Thu Jun 26 2025 07:51 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Jun 27 2025 02:04 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat Jun 28 2025 12:55 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat Jun 28 2025 07:35 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jun 29 2025 06:40 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 07 2025 06:03 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Tue Jul 08 2025 03:06 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Thu Jul 24 2025 04:17 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Thu Jul 24 2025 07:35 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri Jul 25 2025 06:29 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri Jul 25 2025 02:48 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat Jul 26 2025 02:04 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jul 27 2025 09:04 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Sun Jul 27 2025 01:05 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 19 2025 11:51 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 28 2025 08:10 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 29 2025 06:21 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 02 2025 04:26 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 02 2025 04:58 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Aug 03 2025 11:05 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 03 2025 12:14 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Aug 03 2025 07:07 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 04 2025 01:17 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 04 2025 07:05 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 04 2025 12:37 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 04 2025 02:25 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 04 2025 09:46 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Aug 05 2025 09:56 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 06 2025 07:39 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Wed Aug 06 2025 02:16 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 06 2025 06:54 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 06 2025 07:40 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 07 2025 06:49 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Aug 07 2025 02:52 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 07 2025 07:28 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 08 2025 06:50 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 08 2025 01:25 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 08 2025 04:12 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 09 2025 05:36 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Sep 02 2025 07:54 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Sep 03 2025 07:30 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Sep 08 2025 07:09 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Sep 08 2025 07:43 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Sep 08 2025 10:40 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Sep 09 2025 08:48 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Sep 10 2025 11:13 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Sep 09 2025 11:26 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Sep 11 2025 04:49 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 16 2025 09:29 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 21 2025 03:52 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 22 2025 08:42 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	bob3d	Mon Sep 22 2025 10:56 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 24 2025 09:15 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Sep 28 2025 02:50 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MichaelA	Mon Sep 29 2025 09:52 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Oct 01 2025 05:52 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Oct 07 2025 08:31 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Wed Sep 03 2025 10:56 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Sep 07 2025 11:22 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 08 2025 03:40 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Thu Aug 28 2025 01:45 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Sun Aug 31 2025 08:36 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Sep 01 2025 07:55 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 25 2025 10:23 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Aug 26 2025 07:59 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 25 2025 07:26 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Aug 25 2025 09:57 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 23 2025 04:00 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 15 2025 01:22 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 14 2025 10:00 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Aug 15 2025 09:01 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Aug 10 2025 08:02 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Aug 05 2025 08:11 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Aug 05 2025 01:46 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jul 30 2025 06:40 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jul 30 2025 12:51 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Jul 30 2025 02:25 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Jul 27 2025 01:36 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Jul 28 2025 03:14 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	bob3d	Mon Jul 28 2025 04:43 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jul 09 2025 07:09 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Thu Jul 10 2025 08:36 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Fri Jul 11 2025 03:36 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat Jul 12 2025 06:52 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Wed Jul 16 2025 05:07 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jun 03 2025 07:03 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Jun 03 2025 10:04 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Thu Jun 05 2025 07:37 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jun 08 2025 07:38 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jun 10 2025 07:31 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Wed Jun 11 2025 01:57 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	CFHC	Fri Jun 13 2025 05:18 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Jun 14 2025 04:12 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jun 01 2025 05:20 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri May 30 2025 10:56 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri May 30 2025 01:19 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Sat May 31 2025 07:54 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	MikeC	Fri May 30 2025 01:33 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri May 30 2025 08:35 AM

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