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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF. WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 649 (Milton), US Major: 649 (Milton), FL Any: 649 (Milton), FL Major: 649 (Milton)
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Archives 2020s >> 2025 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 94L Lounge
      Wed Sep 24 2025 12:11 PM

Something worth keeping an eye out on with 94L is the possibility for the island topography, which can get quite high, to force convergence and additional vorticity on the Caribbean side, which also happens to be under less detrimental shear than north of the islands. While the cresting of the wave remains north of the islands, as also seen yesterday, there has been better vorticity, at times even drilling down to the surface with possibly gale force in very localized pockets, in the Caribbean itself.

If nothing else, this interaction could tug 94L to the south side of guidance for a while. An outlier would be for genesis to occur while south of Hispaniola and/or Cuba, but that does not look entirely out of the question (maybe 10% chance).


Low level northerlies in the Mona Passage (straight between Hispaniola and PR), as well as in eastern Hispaniola. What could be a touch of westerlies south of there.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Imelda Lounge cieldumortModerator Wed Sep 24 2025 12:11 PM
. * * Re: NINE Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 28 2025 12:22 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 26 2025 02:29 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 25 2025 11:08 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Fri Sep 26 2025 02:20 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Sep 26 2025 04:56 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 26 2025 06:45 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 27 2025 12:20 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 27 2025 08:35 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 27 2025 08:01 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 28 2025 06:32 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge MichaelA   Mon Sep 29 2025 09:41 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 29 2025 09:44 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Sep 29 2025 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 25 2025 08:20 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 25 2025 07:44 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge Kraig   Thu Sep 25 2025 08:44 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 25 2025 10:58 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge Robert   Thu Sep 25 2025 12:24 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 25 2025 01:23 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge Kraig   Thu Sep 25 2025 01:31 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Thu Sep 25 2025 01:59 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Sep 25 2025 08:29 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 24 2025 10:18 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 24 2025 12:11 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Sep 24 2025 05:04 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Sep 24 2025 05:12 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 24 2025 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Wave E of Leewards cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 22 2025 10:51 PM

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