94L remains a bit trapped under the mountainous terrain of the islands lining the northern Caribbean. Meanwhile, with Humberto (from 93L) developing early and consequently pulling away a bit, there may be both less of a tug from Humberto for 94L to head out to sea combining with the general westerly forcing from interaction with the islands. At least, that is my read early in the morning.
Many models, for whatever their reasons, have lurched west with 94L. Many operational and hurricane specific models from overnight 0z runs are now calling for a US landfall. Interestingly, the ensembles are not nearly as on board. Clearly this is still very early with much for models to work out, but the southeast US including Florida up through the Carolinas does look to be much more in play today than at this time yesterday, and the Bahamas specifically look especially vulnerable.
Here are some outcomes from 0z runs. What is impressive is the unanimity of many
GLOBALS ECMWF - Cat 1-ish landfall on South Carolina Monday afternoon (Sep 29) GFS - Out to sea AIFS - Close call for all of the southeast coast before looping around Humberto and out to sea GDPS ("Canadian") - Cat 1-ish landfall on South Carolina Monday evening (Sep 29)
Hurricane Model Runs HWRF - Cat 1/2 landfall on North Carolina overnight Monday/Tues (Sep 29-30) HMON - Cat 1 landfall on South Carolina Monday afternoon (Sep 29) HAFS-A - Rakes the Bahamas as a Cat 4 over the weekend. End of run has it Cat 2/3 just offshore of eastern Florida overnight Monday (Sep 28/29) HAFS-B - Rakes the Bahamas as a Cat 3/4 over the weekend. End of run has it Cat 2/3 offshore of north-central Florida overnight Monday (Sep 28/29)
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