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Hurricane Model Runs
The 06Z runs of both HAFS A and B are significantly weaker, maxing at strong Cat 1 strengths....

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Looking at these two 06z runs, it appears that they both pretty much run the nominal center of 94L through Hispaniola and a significant portion of Cuba, constantly disrupting any real attempt the wave attempts to make to complete TC genesis. This definitely looks like a plausible solution, but the weakness appears to be mostly if not solely the result of this forecast track. A deviation to the south or north of this could result in something much different.

Recon is finding the air north of Hispaniola to be fairly dry throughout the column. This could also be a significant inhibiting factor for development, at least in the near term. Looking out past 48 hours, moisture and shear look to be far less an issue, potentially flipping to outright very supportive by the time 94L "would" be over the Bahamas. Tentatively, I would place the zone for best odds of genesis, if it hasn't already formed, or Rapid Intensification, assuming a TC already has formed, to be around the Bahamas. Even closer to the southeast at time time looks to be supportive.

All speculation for now. Need more recon data into the models. Hopefully by tonight's 0z runs a clearer picture emerges.

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