I'm watching closely but still sitting on my butt today with no extra prep (beyond what I did back in August the week in advance of Erin) for the potential of 94L to significantly impact coastal Volusia. The uncertainty for potential Imelda to begin to rapidly intensity in the Bahamas then track slowly north over the Gulf Stream 50-75 miles offshore from the Cape is bothersome.
I always feel that the worst-case scenario for Florida's east coast north of the Cape would be a Major tracking slowly NNW parallel and only a few miles offshore from the coast, with the west side of the eye wall wobbling onto land as it rakes the coast. Floyd (110 miles offshore), Mathew (25 miles offshore) and Dorian (95 miles out) come to mind as close (but no cigar) contenders.
The Great Bahamas Hurricane in July 1926 which paralleled the southeast Florida coast as a Major before landfall near New Smyrna Beach as a strong Category 2 also comes to mind.
I'm hopeful given the just issued 5 pm advisory for PTC #9 that Imelda will stay at least 100 miles offshore and not stall or strengthen much (if any) beyond Cat 1.
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