Most operational models are taking it out to sea now after stalling out north of the Bahamas, a few hurricane models still show landfall. Ensembles are pretty split on both (AI and others). The general idea to watch for is how far north and west the system develops and how quickly it moves. In this situation anything forming further north than the models show is more likely to have a landfall. Anything south, or slower movement is more likely to stall and stay out to sea beyond the Bahamas. It's still a very murky picture, and the NHC track cone at the end reflects that. As it passes, Florida probably won't see much from it, perhaps a few outer bands along the coast, but we're mostly on the weaker side of the system.
As of this morning it looks more likely than not that there will be no US landfall, however, still way too much uncertainty to be positive of that. Also later in the week it could wind up back closer to land depending on the binary interaction with Humberto. I doubt we'll be able to stop watching this for a while. Bermuda will have to regardless.
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