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The wave we are tracking is now Invest #98L with likely Caribbean impacts, named or not. Also tracking the lead wave ahead of it (lower odds).
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 375 (Milton) , Major: 375 (Milton) Florida - Any: 375 (Milton) Major: 375 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2639
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Humberto Lounge
      Sat Sep 27 2025 10:19 AM

As Humberto has been stronger than models have forecast, it has been unsurprising to see that earlier the cyclone wandered a touch south of west, and thus south of forecast.

Humberto is now probably Cat 5 or very soon will be, as I write this. This is sooner than most models forecast, if they even did forecast Humberto to strengthen this much, at all. Therefore, there could continue to be a more southerly bias to Humberto's track at least in the near term (which is still more likely to be WNW-NW-NNW-N-NE-out-to-sea, overall*), as it will more easily feel the general steering flow in a much taller column. Something to keep a lookout for, as this could mix things up some, both for Humberto, as well as NINE.

*Edited for clarification





Above: CIMSS Steering Product 200-700 hPa for TCs <940mb

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Sep 27 2025 10:59 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Humberto Lounge cieldumort Sat Sep 27 2025 10:19 AM
. * * Re: Humberto Lounge cieldumort   Sat Sep 27 2025 10:19 AM
. * * Re: Humberto Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 26 2025 09:35 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 24 2025 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Central Tropical Atlantic Wave cieldumort   Mon Sep 22 2025 10:41 PM

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