Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995

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I find it interesting that the NAVGEM was an early outlier in showing the hard right turn several days ago, and being consistent. The CMC then began to follow suit, followed by the ECMWF, then the GFS. Usually, the early outliers do not confirm.

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The UK ensemble was noteworthy

An ensemble system that actually did perform consistently well for Imelda was the UKMET MOGREPS ensemble.

At no point did more than a handful of ensemble members show it approaching the Carolinas. pic.twitter.com/25uqOMESdL

— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) ">September 30, 2025

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