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Invest #90L now up to 60% ch of development (NHC). Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings may be issued later today. Extreme rainfall and flooding, regardless.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 614 (Milton), US Major: 614 (Milton), FL Any: 614 (Milton), FL Major: 614 (Milton)
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Archives 2020s >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2691
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: E ATL Wave
      Wed Oct 15 2025 03:53 AM

10-15-0z model runs out to 180 hours (7.5 days)

Models are increasingly holding off development of this wave until it just approaches, and more so, already well into, the Caribbean, sometime next week.

In sharing these, it is worth noting that 2025 has been a very challenging year for the models and forecasters, so much should be taken with a helping of salt.

Of all the models, the Google DeepMind GDM-FNV3 (Google Deep Mind's newest ensemble machine learning weather model, optimized for cyclones) has really been outstanding in terms of track and intensity for certain, and a cursory glance at how it has handled issues of TC genesis/no genesis, also a very good performance. At the other end, the GFS has spun out so many phantom Caribbean TCs (usually of the CAG variety) this year, it is seriously at risk of becoming the little boy that cried wolf for when one actually does form, eventually, some month, some year, maybe this, maybe next.














All in all, this is a strong signal for TC genesis in the Caribbean by the middle of next week. TCs that are in the Caribbean nearly always make a landfall, and often more than once. Additionally, this part of the basin has not yet been tapped of its potential, with very warm waters extending to exceptional depths.


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Melissa Lounge cieldumort Wed Oct 15 2025 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 28 2025 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 28 2025 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 26 2025 07:45 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge TanukiMario   Mon Oct 27 2025 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Psyber   Mon Oct 27 2025 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Psyber   Mon Oct 27 2025 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 28 2025 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Oct 26 2025 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 25 2025 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 24 2025 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Robert   Fri Oct 24 2025 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Owlguin   Wed Oct 22 2025 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 03:48 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 09:39 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 20 2025 11:41 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 23 2025 08:00 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 22 2025 08:21 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 21 2025 07:07 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 01:55 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge TanukiMario   Mon Oct 20 2025 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 07:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Oct 20 2025 10:35 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 19 2025 02:19 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Fri Oct 17 2025 02:22 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Thu Oct 16 2025 11:15 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2025 05:25 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave CFHCAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2025 02:28 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave Robert   Wed Oct 15 2025 02:31 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Wed Oct 15 2025 03:53 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave TanukiMario   Mon Oct 13 2025 03:30 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave Owlguin   Mon Oct 13 2025 02:05 PM

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