cieldumort
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Posts: 2664
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: 98L Lounge
Mon Oct 20 2025 01:55 PM
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We now have several recon missions to look forward to that have been tasked. Data assimilation has been a little wanting with this wave, especially considering we have not had a single recon mission into it yet. Its track across the islands did add some extra information as to its structure we did not have before, but all in all, I do not have a high level of confidence in the models with what they have had to work with thus far. This is a tricky set up in a tricky year, also with the introduction of several new models, some better than others, but also with drawbacks.
Going with what we have to work with so far, which isn't all that much compared to the usual, I am still going to toss out my personal best guess for 98L's lifetime maximum intensity, something I try to do as a little academic exercise with systems likely to impact land. This is not to forecast their maximum intensity at landfall, however.
Best guess for 98L's lifetime maximum intensity
Disturbance/No-TC (Current status) 1%
Tropical Depression <39 MPH 2%
Tropical Storm 40-50 MPH 3%
Mid/High-end Tropical Storm 60-70 MPH 10%
Cat 1 Hurricane 12%
Cat 2 Hurricane 16%
Cat 3 Hurricane 21%
Cat 4 Hurricane 22%
Cat 5 Hurricane 13%
In summary, I think the chance 98L becomes a Tropical Cyclone is 99%, a Hurricane 84%, a Major Hurricane 56%
This opinion is of lower than usual confidence. Limiting factors to higher confidence: Potential land interaction/s, nearby dry air, mis-analyzed shear, lack of recon missions. Will update later after flights.
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