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#TropicalStormMelissa has formed from #98L This is potentially a very high-impact system for the central to western Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 376 (Milton) , Major: 376 (Milton) Florida - Any: 376 (Milton) Major: 376 (Milton)
TS Melissa
ADV#2 5:00 pm EDT
14.2N 73.0W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
W at 15 mph
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2646
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 98L Lounge
      Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM

Looking at the Google AI ensembles, both the most recent FNV3 and GENC suites have eased up on crossing Hispaniola, with several more members stalling, then looping back around towards the west. GENCs deepen slower overall than the FNV3s, but this can probably be explained by the fact that the FNV3 is specifically designed to forecast tropical cyclones, whereas GENC is a general purpose weather model.

Both 18z AI model members that take 98/Melissa back towards the west largely ramp her up into a Major, except for some of the early landfalls.

18z FNV3


18z GENC


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Melissa Lounge cieldumort Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 03:48 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 09:39 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 20 2025 11:41 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 21 2025 07:07 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 01:55 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge TanukiMario   Mon Oct 20 2025 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 07:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Oct 20 2025 10:35 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 19 2025 02:19 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Fri Oct 17 2025 02:22 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Thu Oct 16 2025 11:15 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2025 05:25 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave CFHCAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2025 02:28 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave Robert   Wed Oct 15 2025 02:31 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Wed Oct 15 2025 03:53 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave TanukiMario   Mon Oct 13 2025 03:30 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave Owlguin   Mon Oct 13 2025 02:05 PM

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