Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995


Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 397 (Milton) , Major: 397 (Milton) Florida - Any: 397 (Milton) Major: 397 (Milton)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2664
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Melissa Lounge
      Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM

Now that we have invaluable recon data to consider, I am updating my 98L (now Melissa) lifetime maximum intensity best guesses. This is not a forecast for Melissa's intensity at landfall/s.

50 MPH Tropical Storm (Current state): Close to 0%
60-70 MPH mid/high-end Tropical Storm: 1%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 3%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 5%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 14%
130-140 MPH Cat 4 Hurricane: 17%
150-155 MPH High-End Cat 4: 19%
160-170 MPH Cat 5: 20%
175-200 MPH Cat 5: 19%
Over 200 MPH Cat 5: 2%

In summary: Current state: Nearly 0%. Odds of becoming a hurricane of any category: 99%. Odds of becoming a Major Hurricane 91%. Odds of becoming a Cat 5: 41%

This is all based on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which is to say, just wind. Rainfall, flooding, mudslides and surge from Melissa could become an even greater concern.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Melissa Lounge cieldumort Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 28 2025 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 28 2025 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 26 2025 07:45 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge TanukiMario   Mon Oct 27 2025 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Psyber   Mon Oct 27 2025 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Psyber   Mon Oct 27 2025 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 28 2025 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Oct 26 2025 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 25 2025 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 24 2025 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Robert   Fri Oct 24 2025 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Owlguin   Wed Oct 22 2025 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 03:48 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 09:39 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 20 2025 11:41 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 23 2025 08:00 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 22 2025 08:21 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 21 2025 07:07 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 01:55 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge TanukiMario   Mon Oct 20 2025 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 07:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Oct 20 2025 10:35 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 19 2025 02:19 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Fri Oct 17 2025 02:22 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Thu Oct 16 2025 11:15 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2025 05:25 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave CFHCAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2025 02:28 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave Robert   Wed Oct 15 2025 02:31 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Wed Oct 15 2025 03:53 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave TanukiMario   Mon Oct 13 2025 03:30 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave Owlguin   Mon Oct 13 2025 02:05 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 20 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 6753

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center