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Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 619 (Milton), US Major: 619 (Milton), FL Any: 619 (Milton), FL Major: 619 (Milton)

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Archives 2020s >> 2025 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2705
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Melissa Lounge
Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM

Now that we have invaluable recon data to consider, I am updating my 98L (now Melissa) lifetime maximum intensity best guesses. This is not a forecast for Melissa's intensity at landfall/s.

50 MPH Tropical Storm (Current state): Close to 0%
60-70 MPH mid/high-end Tropical Storm: 1%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 3%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 5%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 14%
130-140 MPH Cat 4 Hurricane: 17%
150-155 MPH High-End Cat 4: 19%
160-170 MPH Cat 5: 20%
175-200 MPH Cat 5: 19%
Over 200 MPH Cat 5: 2%

In summary: Current state: Nearly 0%. Odds of becoming a hurricane of any category: 99%. Odds of becoming a Major Hurricane 91%. Odds of becoming a Cat 5: 41%

This is all based on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which is to say, just wind. Rainfall, flooding, mudslides and surge from Melissa could become an even greater concern.

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 28 2025 04:48 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 28 2025 11:24 AM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Oct 26 2025 07:45 AM
Re: Melissa Lounge	TanukiMario	Mon Oct 27 2025 08:24 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	Psyber	Mon Oct 27 2025 09:22 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	Psyber	Mon Oct 27 2025 07:08 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 28 2025 04:40 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sun Oct 26 2025 04:44 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 25 2025 11:34 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 24 2025 07:08 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	Robert	Fri Oct 24 2025 09:03 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 22 2025 04:46 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM
Re: Melissa Lounge	Owlguin	Wed Oct 22 2025 01:52 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 22 2025 08:54 AM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 21 2025 04:06 PM
Re: Melissa Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 21 2025 03:48 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 20 2025 09:39 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 20 2025 11:41 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Thu Oct 23 2025 08:00 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Wed Oct 22 2025 08:21 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 21 2025 07:07 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 20 2025 01:55 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	TanukiMario	Mon Oct 20 2025 04:54 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 20 2025 07:54 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	CFHC	Mon Oct 20 2025 10:35 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Oct 19 2025 02:19 AM
Re: E ATL Wave	cieldumort	Fri Oct 17 2025 02:22 AM
Re: E ATL Wave	cieldumort	Thu Oct 16 2025 11:15 AM
Re: E ATL Wave	MikeC	Wed Oct 15 2025 05:25 AM
Re: E ATL Wave	CFHC	Wed Oct 15 2025 02:28 PM
Re: E ATL Wave	Robert	Wed Oct 15 2025 02:31 PM
Re: E ATL Wave	cieldumort	Wed Oct 15 2025 03:53 AM
Re: E ATL Wave	TanukiMario	Mon Oct 13 2025 03:30 PM
Re: E ATL Wave	Owlguin	Mon Oct 13 2025 02:05 PM

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