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Melissa holding as a tropical storm this evening, forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow, and a major hurricane on Sunday. Hurricane Warnings now up for Jamaica.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 380 (Milton) , Major: 380 (Milton) Florida - Any: 380 (Milton) Major: 380 (Milton)
TS Melissa
ADV#16 5:00 am EDT
16.3N 75.0W
Wind: 70MPH
Pres: 986mb
Moving:
Nw at 3 mph
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4809
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 98L Lounge
      Thu Oct 23 2025 08:00 AM

Another day of highly sheared system, it's on the edge of getting pushed up like the GFS is showing, but ultimately won't head that way and go along the track. How intense it gets is only limited by the shape it gets in. Tomorrow or so that shear starts to let up, so it'll probably slowly strengthen at first and ramp up when the shear is gone and the outflow gets ventilated by it instead. UKMet keeps it weak, though. Models probably will fluctuate some more, and the tTrack is still variant, but the NHC's is probably the best weighted.



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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Melissa Lounge cieldumort Thu Oct 23 2025 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 24 2025 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Robert   Fri Oct 24 2025 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge Owlguin   Wed Oct 22 2025 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Wed Oct 22 2025 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Melissa Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 03:48 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 09:39 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 20 2025 11:41 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 23 2025 08:00 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 22 2025 08:21 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 21 2025 07:07 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 01:55 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge TanukiMario   Mon Oct 20 2025 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 07:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Oct 20 2025 10:35 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Oct 19 2025 02:19 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Fri Oct 17 2025 02:22 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Thu Oct 16 2025 11:15 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2025 05:25 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave CFHCAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2025 02:28 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave Robert   Wed Oct 15 2025 02:31 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave cieldumort   Wed Oct 15 2025 03:53 AM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave TanukiMario   Mon Oct 13 2025 03:30 PM
. * * Re: E ATL Wave Owlguin   Mon Oct 13 2025 02:05 PM

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