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Melissa holding as a tropical storm this evening, forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow, and a major hurricane on Sunday. Hurricane Warnings now up for Jamaica.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 380 (Milton) , Major: 380 (Milton) Florida - Any: 380 (Milton) Major: 380 (Milton)
TS Melissa
ADV#16 5:00 am EDT
16.3N 75.0W
Wind: 70MPH
Pres: 986mb
Moving:
Nw at 3 mph
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2652
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Melissa in the Caribbean
      Fri Oct 24 2025 12:53 PM

Melissa has seen several center relocations over the past few days. This morning, several more recentered the cyclone further into the deep convection, to the southeast of forecast locations.

Most recent recon data combined with most recent microwave imagery suggests that an inner core may now be forming within the deep convection. Melissa has responded, with maximum sustained winds of about 60 MPH and pressure now down to about 999mb.

The chapter of Melissa's intensification has begun, and has done so a little bit south and east of where it was expected to commence. This may have some implications for duration over water (probably longer) and how much the cyclone feels and responds to changing steering currents building in from her north (possibly ultimately ending up a little west or west-southwest of where progged for 72-96 hours, as just one potential outcome).

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Melissa in the Caribbean cieldumort Fri Oct 24 2025 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Melissa in the Caribbean cieldumort   Fri Oct 24 2025 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Melissa in the Caribbean cieldumort   Fri Oct 24 2025 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Second Half of October Activity CFHCAdministrator   Fri Oct 24 2025 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Second Half of October Activity CFHCAdministrator   Thu Oct 23 2025 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Second Half of October Activity cieldumort   Mon Oct 20 2025 08:37 PM

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