Post historic Melissa, the obese dame has been warming up her vocal cords on the 2025 hurricane season's conclusion. However, some medium range models say not so quick on belting out the final chorus. There is plenty of fuel in the way of well-above normal SST's in the western Caribbean and the southern GOMEX. Last several days, modeling has been toying with a depression, PTC or tropical storm spinning up in the gyre in the far western Caribbean around the 13th of November, then drifting NNW to a position in the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula.where it sits for several days without much development. Will it survive interaction with the Yucatan and increasing shear to realize the GOMEX? Too early to make the call, but definitely worth watching a week before Thanksgiving.
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