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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2738
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Long Range 2026
Thu Jun 04 2026 02:24 PM

I've become very suspicious of any even medium-range GFS forecasts. There are a number of reasons for this that I won't go into here, but long and short of it, generally speaking, the GFS has become one of the last models I look to for anything more than a very broad-brush of future conditions. That said, last week's 5/27/0z run out to today arguably performed better than its competitors. While a closed circulation still looks to be a good bit more elevated than at the 925mb level predicted, it wasn't a totally outlandish modeled outcome, and as mentioned, seemed to outperform the EURO, EURO AI, GFS AI and CANADIAN runs from the same time.

Below: GFS 5/27/0z for 6/4/12z

Below: Actual 6/4/18z

Something I'll be keeping in mind as the current season continues.

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Long Range 2026	MikeC	Thu Jun 04 2026 02:24 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	cieldumort	Wed Jul 15 2026 03:01 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	cieldumort	Mon Jun 08 2026 04:15 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	cieldumort	Tue Jun 09 2026 01:43 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Tue Jun 09 2026 08:18 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Thu May 28 2026 08:00 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Wed Jun 03 2026 06:54 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Wed Jun 03 2026 04:18 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Thu Jun 04 2026 07:26 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Wed May 27 2026 06:42 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	cieldumort	Wed May 27 2026 01:37 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	cieldumort	Wed May 27 2026 02:20 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	cieldumort	Thu Jun 04 2026 02:24 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Thu Jun 04 2026 08:51 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Fri Jun 05 2026 07:08 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	CFHC	Fri Jun 05 2026 04:13 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Tue Jun 23 2026 07:06 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Wed Jun 24 2026 07:19 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	CFHC	Wed Jun 24 2026 03:27 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	CFHC	Mon Jun 29 2026 09:37 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Sun Jun 07 2026 09:22 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	CFHC	Mon Jun 08 2026 03:34 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	CFHC	Tue May 26 2026 09:05 AM
Re: Long Range 2026	CFHC	Wed May 20 2026 04:06 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	MikeC	Fri May 22 2026 07:11 PM
Re: Long Range 2026	scottsvb	Sun May 24 2026 08:01 PM

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