2026 Season Guesses - FLHurricane.com

I guess last year's lack of US landfalls, the increasing likelihood of El Nino conditions accelerating late summer to November 30th, seasonal outlooks nearly unanimously calling for below (to well below) normal activity in the Atlantic basin, and the lack of US landfalls last season has collectively lulled interest following a decade of impactful US hurricanes.

Given the increase in activity since the pertinent publication: Effect of El Nino on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes in 1998, it will be interesting to see if the forecasts for a relatively tame season holds true, especially considering the pace of activity the last 20 years when nine 18+ named storm seasons occurred between 2005-2025. While satellite-era monitoring means few tropical systems go unnoticed. ATLANTIC HURRICANE NUMBERS BY YEAR illustrates the back-loaded activity in recent times.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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