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The Tropical Low that drifted into Mexico now looks to be preparing to track east and possibly into the northern Gulf. Development odds increasing. Days of flooding a huge threat, regardless.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 613 (Milton), US Major: 613 (Milton), FL Any: 613 (Milton), FL Major: 613 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2686
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD
Sat Jun 13 2026 04:28 AM

A solid Scat pass arrived a while ago that also suggests a closed surface low exists, but that is wonky and elongated ~ and at the time ~ arguably located partially inland ~ south of the Bay of Campeche. Furthermore, most of the disturbance resembles a trof.

Below: analysis from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) June 13 2:22z

Recent Scatterometer data (surface winds):

Despite all of the above, the 1007mb Low continues to very gradually show improved convection, moisture and structure, and very importantly, no longer is it getting beaten up by high levels of dry air and shear. Increasingly, the disturbance finds itself in a moistening environment with upper-level high pressure building in aloft, and the fledgling surface circulation could be getting drawn further into the deeper convection to its north.

If trends continue, and Invest tag will likely be added and vort-centric, "Hurricane," model runs could begin.

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
NW Gulf Low Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sat Jun 13 2026 04:28 AM
Re: NW Gulf Low Invest TBD	cieldumort	Mon Jun 15 2026 02:42 AM
Re: NW Gulf Low Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sun Jun 14 2026 11:58 PM
Re: NW Gulf Low Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sun Jun 14 2026 03:30 PM
Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Jun 14 2026 12:14 PM
Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sun Jun 14 2026 02:01 PM
Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sat Jun 13 2026 02:03 PM
Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sat Jun 13 2026 04:28 AM
Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD	CFHC	Fri Jun 12 2026 09:52 AM
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK)	cieldumort	Fri Jun 12 2026 01:34 AM
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK)	cieldumort	Fri Jun 12 2026 01:07 AM
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) AOI 10%	cieldumort	Thu Jun 11 2026 12:50 PM
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK)	cieldumort	Wed Jun 10 2026 02:38 PM
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK)	CFHC	Thu Jun 11 2026 10:40 AM
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK)	cieldumort	Wed Jun 10 2026 12:44 PM
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK)	cieldumort	Wed Jun 10 2026 11:46 AM
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK)	CFHC	Wed Jun 10 2026 10:53 AM

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