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Tropical Storm Arthur has formed near the middle Texas coast.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 615 (Milton), US Major: 615 (Milton), FL Any: 615 (Milton), FL Major: 615 (Milton)
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28.8N -95.5W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 999mb
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Present movement...ne or 45 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h
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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2700
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD
      Sun Jun 14 2026 02:01 PM

I strongly suspect that it closed off intermittently, but that was its weakness - reverting back to wave/trof too often - might have been able to pull it off with another 24 hours over water. Now that it is over land and barely recognizable, I have more doubts than ever about its chances to become a tropical cyclone, and find it curious that NHC has actually increased development odds to 30% over the next 7 days. The EURO and its ensembles have been bullish, but a lot of that bullishness is actually over land and probably has more to do upper-level support and perhaps also brown ocean biases of that particular model.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Arthur Lounge cieldumort Sun Jun 14 2026 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Arthur Lounge cieldumort   Wed Jun 17 2026 11:39 AM
. * * Re: PTC ONE Lounge cieldumort   Wed Jun 17 2026 04:36 AM
. * * Re: PTC ONE Lounge cieldumort   Tue Jun 16 2026 09:59 PM
. * * Re: PTC ONE Lounge cieldumort   Tue Jun 16 2026 10:12 PM
. * * Re: PTC ONE Lounge cieldumort   Tue Jun 16 2026 08:05 PM
. * * Re: PTC ONE Lounge cieldumort   Tue Jun 16 2026 01:17 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 90L cieldumort   Mon Jun 15 2026 06:45 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 90L cieldumort   Mon Jun 15 2026 02:41 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 90L cieldumort   Mon Jun 15 2026 02:57 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 90L CFHCAdministrator   Mon Jun 15 2026 03:20 PM
. * * Re: NW Gulf Low Invest TBD cieldumort   Mon Jun 15 2026 01:08 PM
. * * Re: NW Gulf Low Invest TBD cieldumort   Mon Jun 15 2026 02:42 AM
. * * Re: NW Gulf Low Invest TBD cieldumort   Sun Jun 14 2026 11:58 PM
. * * Re: NW Gulf Low Invest TBD cieldumort   Sun Jun 14 2026 03:30 PM
. * * Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 14 2026 12:14 PM
. * * Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD cieldumort   Sun Jun 14 2026 02:01 PM
. * * Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD cieldumort   Sat Jun 13 2026 02:03 PM
. * * Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD cieldumort   Sat Jun 13 2026 04:28 AM
. * * Re: W Gulf Closed Low Invest TBD CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jun 12 2026 09:52 AM
. * * Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) cieldumort   Fri Jun 12 2026 01:34 AM
. * * Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) cieldumort   Fri Jun 12 2026 01:07 AM
. * * Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) AOI 10% cieldumort   Thu Jun 11 2026 12:50 PM
. * * Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) cieldumort   Wed Jun 10 2026 02:38 PM
. * * Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) CFHCAdministrator   Thu Jun 11 2026 10:40 AM
. * * Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) cieldumort   Wed Jun 10 2026 12:44 PM
. * * Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) cieldumort   Wed Jun 10 2026 11:46 AM
. * * Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) CFHCAdministrator   Wed Jun 10 2026 10:53 AM

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