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Hurricane Fausto heads towards the Hawaiian Islands and Wataches may go up by early next week. Atlantic is quiet again.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 652 (Milton), US Major: 652 (Milton), FL Any: 652 (Milton), FL Major: 652 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2736
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf
Fri Jul 17 2026 06:14 PM

Most recent runs of Globals and also some CAMS (Convection Allowing Models) for 18z Sunday. The Globals are uniformly on the tamer side, CAMS mostly developing, but CAMS do also have an inherent convective bias that can often overdo tropical systems (NAM infamously). Nonetheless, the CAMS probably are also signaling the upper-bound potential of this system for 18z Sunday (roughly 40-48 hours out from now).

Today's NHC midday TWO increased their bid to 10% within 48 hours and 30% within 7 days, indicating that they still believe the best shot for tropical cyclone genesis may wait until next week.

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Bertha Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Jul 17 2026 06:14 PM
Re: Bertha Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Jul 23 2026 03:00 AM
Re: Bertha Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Jul 23 2026 03:01 AM
Re: Bertha Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Jul 23 2026 02:20 AM
Re: Bertha Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Jul 23 2026 12:32 AM
Re: Bertha Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 21 2026 04:06 AM
Re: Bertha Lounge	CFHC	Tue Jul 21 2026 06:37 PM
Re: Bertha Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Jul 21 2026 03:59 AM
Re: TD TWO Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Jul 20 2026 10:57 AM
Re: TD TWO Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Jul 19 2026 07:06 PM
Re: TD TWO Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Jul 19 2026 07:05 PM
Re: TD TWO Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Jul 19 2026 03:34 PM
Re: Invest 91L	cieldumort	Sun Jul 19 2026 03:29 AM
Re: Invest 91L	cieldumort	Sat Jul 18 2026 10:50 PM
Re: Invest 91L	LoisCane	Sun Jul 19 2026 12:05 AM
Re: Invest 91L	cieldumort	Sat Jul 18 2026 10:18 PM
Re: Invest 91L	cieldumort	Sat Jul 18 2026 12:26 PM
Re: Invest 91L	Kraig	Sat Jul 18 2026 02:17 PM
Re: Invest 91L	JMII	Mon Jul 20 2026 11:10 AM
Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf	cieldumort	Sat Jul 18 2026 04:11 AM
Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf	cieldumort	Sat Jul 18 2026 03:09 AM
Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf	Keith B	Fri Jul 17 2026 07:38 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf	cieldumort	Fri Jul 17 2026 06:14 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf	cieldumort	Fri Jul 17 2026 01:43 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf	JMII	Fri Jul 17 2026 04:33 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf	cieldumort	Fri Jul 17 2026 01:15 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Eastern Gulf	cieldumort	Fri Jul 17 2026 12:47 PM

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