East AOI (60%) South of Cabo Verde

E ATL AOI presently centered about 10N 30W per NHC as of 1AM EDT today, as seen above as a red x.

8/11/26/0z run of the Google DeepMind FNV3 ensembles shows only a handful of the primary 50 members developing a TC in the tropical Atlantic at all, and it is actually not clear if what these ensemble runs are developing is even this particular area of low pressure (Disturbance 15).

No development at 48 hours out (8/13/26/0z)

A handful of ensemble members kick off development well east of the red x,
all the way out to south of the Cabo Verde Islands, roughly near 10.5 to 11N, 24 to 26W.

By 120 hours out (five full days), a few more members generate a TC around 38W. The image
below includes both those that developed sooner and south of the Cabo Verdes and those that
developed later, near 38W, making it look as if there is some overwhelming consensus of models
forming a tropical storm, when really it is still just a modest percent of members.

Going out a full ten days (240 hours), a still modest percentage of these ensemble members did develop a tropical cyclone in the central Atlantic.
Of those that did, a healthy percentage do find the survivor candidates mostly strong or even intense tropical cyclones by this time,
most with a tendency to begin gaining a lot more latitude.

Going all the way out to the end of this run (360 hours), a small handful of these surviving candidates are left, only the strongest, most of which have recurved. Three threaten the US.

TC-ATLAS' FNV3 50-member overview of Disturbance 15

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