Looking at some of the conditions ahead for 96L, vertical instability in the Tropical Atlantic is starting to head up with climatology, but remains well below normal.
However, area-wide, shear is starting to approach normally climatologically favorable levels
In addition, thus far the cocoon of less dry to even moist air is holding. The system has a window of perhaps two or three days to pull it together, but after that, conditions for genesis may prove too difficult. Overnight tonight through tomorrow night may be the best window, tho genesis could occur as soon as later today. I think FNV3 is being far too bearish on its prospects, whereas GFS is far too bullish. Probably give this one close to a coin toss of forming, personally. If it develops and stays weak enough to travel further west, those in the Antilles may be at some risk later this weekend and/or into next week.
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