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Dolly in the Tropical Atlantic is tracking west towards the Antilles, but likely to encounter more shear.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 687 (Milton), US Major: 687 (Milton), FL Any: 687 (Milton), FL Major: 687 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2799
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: 96L Lounge
Thu Aug 27 2026 03:40 AM

Invest 96L is almost certainly a tropical cyclone now, albeit still sheared and still battling dry air. The concern with the system has always been, what will it be, if anything, by the time it reaches the longitude of the Antilles, and could it even pose a risk to the Bahamas, Florida, or other Gulf coast states.

Should NHC confirm TC status, then once models lock in to the reality that it is a TC now and start to conduct future runs based on this assessment, we may get some more reliable output. Until then, here is the latest early 06z track guidance
(Note: an end of the track does not necessarily mean the end of the system's future, just that the model run ended at that hour OR in some cases, it could be that they lost track of the vort).

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Dolly Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Aug 27 2026 03:40 AM
Re: Dolly Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Aug 27 2026 02:44 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 27 2026 07:21 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	CFHC	Thu Aug 27 2026 10:37 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 27 2026 01:46 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Aug 27 2026 03:40 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 26 2026 10:25 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 26 2026 10:04 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 26 2026 04:20 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 26 2026 05:34 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 26 2026 07:42 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 26 2026 01:23 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 26 2026 12:06 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 25 2026 02:24 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 26 2026 07:27 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 26 2026 11:40 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 25 2026 01:27 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 25 2026 12:45 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 25 2026 12:33 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	CFHC	Tue Aug 25 2026 09:39 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 24 2026 08:50 PM
Re: Robust New Tropical Wave Invest TBD	cieldumort	Mon Aug 24 2026 11:24 AM
Re: Robust New Tropical Wave Invest TBD	cieldumort	Mon Aug 24 2026 11:19 AM

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