W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD

A roughly eight day window for development in the Gulf is starting to get a lot more hits from extended range quality models and their ensembles. It is not immediately clear if this will be from a Central American Gyre, wave, or combination of both, but the general region of projected best genesis potential seems to favor either or both. The signal has been consistent, with the stellar Google DeepMind FNv3 now implying 40% odds of development from the western Caribbean into the Gulf during this window. Given the very consistent signal, we are starting a Lounge on this projected system, Invest TBD, at this time.

It is worth noting that 2026 has not seen a hurricane form yet in the Atlantic basin and the current El Niño has been much stronger than forecasts prior to the start of the season. In fact, this El Niño is setting all-time records going back at least decades and likely centuries. Given that we do not have much historical precedent to work off of as far as how this could influence modeling this far out, some consideration should be given that they could be overcooking things. Nonetheless, here are some examples:

Image credit: James Pettus @PettusWX pettusplots.com

The most recent DeepMind generation, WNv3, is not as impressed, at 22% development odds. Timeline is about the same, with median genesis 228 hours from 12z today (0z Oct 9)

Credit: TC-ATLAS

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