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Southwest Gulf Area of Interest now NHC 40% odds of development and rising. More indepth details in Lounge.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 724 (Milton), US Major: 724 (Milton), FL Any: 724 (Milton), FL Major: 724 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2903
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD
Sun Oct 04 2026 03:23 AM

Models, including the high quality DeepMind versions and their ensembles, continue gradually, if unevenly, warming up to development potential in the Gulf within this window. In addition, an increasing number of ensemble members ramp things up a bit intensity-wise. While this season has mostly produced weak storms so far, the Gulf this time of year can see upside surprises that are also immediately landlocked and likely to make landfall somewhere.

Big jump in the DeepMind FNv3 50 suite compared to yesterday, now implying 42% odds of at least a tropical storm, with a median genesis of early morning Oct 8th

Credit: TC-ATLAS

Post Extras

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Sun Oct 04 2026 03:23 AM
Re: W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Sun Oct 04 2026 04:37 PM
Re: W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Sun Oct 04 2026 01:19 PM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sun Oct 04 2026 03:23 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Oct 04 2026 09:58 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sat Oct 03 2026 02:20 PM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sat Oct 03 2026 03:49 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Fri Oct 02 2026 11:37 PM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Fri Oct 02 2026 03:04 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Wed Sep 30 2026 09:12 AM

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