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Southwest Gulf Invest 92L now NHC 80% odds of development and rising. Recon being prepared. More details in Lounge.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 726 (Milton), US Major: 726 (Milton), FL Any: 726 (Milton), FL Major: 726 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2908
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: W Gulf Area of Interest
Mon Oct 05 2026 12:09 PM

As noted by Dr. Levi Cowen (TropicalTidbits) above, the models are basically split into two camps, with several of the classic models less bullish vs. the AIs favoring the positioning of the disturbance (then TC) in the most favorable region possible. Essentially a few stars aligned vs. almost all, if not all, stars aligned.

The implications of which scenario is most correct are stark. With the less ideal solutions, our disturbance struggles with shear and dry air, possibly never even becoming a Tropical Storm at all. On the other side, what looks to myself and others to be about an equally valid possibility, the then-Tropical Cyclone finds itself benefiting mightily from strong upper-level divergence and much lower shear while tracking over very, very warm waters.

The intensity ceiling scenario of situation #1, the weaker scenario, is probably limited to a strong tropical storm at best, unless the system stays locked in the Gulf long enough for conditions for further development to improve, which is possible.

The intensity ceiling of situation #2, the forecast increasingly preferred by AI models, is very high, with plausible Major Hurricane outcomes, albeit as of now, low odds. But as models would have it, right now they imply about a 50-50 shot of this becoming a hurricane.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
92L Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 05 2026 12:09 PM
Re: 92L Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Oct 05 2026 02:47 PM
Re: 92L Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 05 2026 09:33 PM
Re: W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Mon Oct 05 2026 12:52 PM
Re: W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Mon Oct 05 2026 12:09 PM
Re: W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Mon Oct 05 2026 11:59 AM
Re: W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Mon Oct 05 2026 01:59 AM
Re: W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Sun Oct 04 2026 04:37 PM
Re: W Gulf Area of Interest	cieldumort	Sun Oct 04 2026 01:19 PM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sun Oct 04 2026 03:23 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	MikeC	Sun Oct 04 2026 09:58 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	MikeC	Mon Oct 05 2026 06:48 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	CFHC	Mon Oct 05 2026 02:01 PM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sat Oct 03 2026 02:20 PM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Sat Oct 03 2026 03:49 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Fri Oct 02 2026 11:37 PM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Fri Oct 02 2026 03:04 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD	cieldumort	Wed Sep 30 2026 09:12 AM

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