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Gulf Invest 92L now NHC 90% odds of development and rising. Yucatan, Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend, Northen Gulf States should stay alert.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 726 (Milton), US Major: 726 (Milton), FL Any: 726 (Milton), FL Major: 726 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumortModerator
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Reged:
Posts: 2911
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 92L Lounge
      Tue Oct 06 2026 02:33 AM

We really need those recon missions into 92L

Several 0z hurricane models blow the Invest up while in the Gulf, but then dry air and shear takes their toll on the cyclone by the time it is nearing the coast, and unlike Edouard which was intensifying into landfall, 92L - then Isaias - weakens dramatically into landfall. Side rant ~ If this were to actually happen, we could in theory have a Major in the Gulf, watches and warnings put up along the northern Gulf coast and official forecasts from NHC calling for weakening by landfall, but with people frantically checking the latest clickbait worst-case runs on social media and freaking out. Then blame the NHC of course should Isaias roll onshore more like a wet lamb after social media posts roared like a fierce lion.

Other models, including the operationally retired HWRF, maintain a vigorous Major all the way into landfall.

Recon ASAP is going to be critical in nailing this forecast with enough time.

Here are some heading-into-landfall forecasts from the hurricane models








Screenshots credits: TropicalTidbits

Reassuring that the HWRF is now often thought of as more of a C-tier model, replaced and bested by the HAFS. Still, a model run that deserves consideration until proven otherwise.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator Tue Oct 06 2026 02:33 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 06 2026 12:04 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 06 2026 02:33 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Oct 06 2026 10:45 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 05 2026 02:47 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 05 2026 09:33 PM
. * * Re: W Gulf Area of Interest cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 05 2026 12:52 PM
. * * Re: W Gulf Area of Interest cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 05 2026 12:09 PM
. * * Re: W Gulf Area of Interest cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 05 2026 11:59 AM
. * * Re: W Gulf Area of Interest cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 05 2026 01:59 AM
. * * Re: W Gulf Area of Interest cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 04 2026 04:37 PM
. * * Re: W Gulf Area of Interest cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 04 2026 01:19 PM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 04 2026 03:23 AM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 04 2026 09:58 AM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 05 2026 06:48 AM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD CFHCAdministrator   Mon Oct 05 2026 02:01 PM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 03 2026 02:20 PM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 03 2026 03:49 AM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 02 2026 11:37 PM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 02 2026 03:04 AM
. * * Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 30 2026 09:12 AM

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