Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995

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We really need those recon missions into 92L. Several 0z hurricane models blow the Invest up while in the Gulf, but then dry air and shear takes their toll on the cyclone by the time it is nearing the coast, and unlike Edouard which was into landfall, 92L - then Isaias weakens dramatically into landfall. Side rant ~ If this were to actually happen, we could in theory have a Major in the Gulf, watches and warnings put up along the northern Gulf coast and official forecasts from NHC calling for weakening by landfall, but with people frantically checking the latest clickbait worst-case runs on social media and freaking out. Then blame the NHC of course should Isaias roll onshore more like a wet lamb after social media posts roared like a fierce lion. Other models, including the operationally retired HWRF, maintain a vigorous Major all the way into landfall. Often thought of as more of a C-tier model, replaced and bested by the HAFS. Still, a model run that deserves consideration until proven otherwise.

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Impressive/explosive deep convection underway this morning: GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - GeoColor - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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