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HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISAIAS NOW CAT 2. 91% OF WNv3 ENSEMBLES FORECAST MAJOR.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 728 (Milton), US Major: 728 (Milton), FL Any: 728 (Milton), FL Major: 728 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

cieldumort
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Posts: 2932
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW
Thu Oct 08 2026 03:13 AM

Several GFS ensemble members are also warm to the idea of reintensification upon approach to the coast of SoCal and/or NW Baja. Waters are anomalously warm around there, but not outright tropical cyclone favorable. Likely some upper-air dynamics going on at this time in these runs as well.

Anything verifying close to the more aggressive runs would likely necessitate Watches and/or Warnings. The last and only time NHC has ever issued a Tropical Storm Watch (and later upgraded to Warning) for any portion of southern California was in August 2023 with Hilary.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW	cieldumort	Thu Oct 08 2026 03:13 AM
Re: Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW	cieldumort	Thu Oct 08 2026 03:18 AM
Re: Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW	cieldumort	Thu Oct 08 2026 03:13 AM
Re: Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW	cieldumort	Thu Oct 08 2026 02:12 AM
Re: Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW	cieldumort	Wed Oct 07 2026 10:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW	cieldumort	Wed Oct 07 2026 05:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW	cieldumort	Wed Oct 07 2026 12:22 PM

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