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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Zeta) , Major: 338 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1024 (Michael) Major: 1024 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
It Must Be September
      Sat Sep 20 2003 11:35 PM

At least a couple of active areas to remind us that the season is far from over. In the western Gulf of Mexico a strong area of upper divergence has sparked a large area of convection. Although the area is now in a diurnal decline, it has persisted for a couple of days and it has acquired some cyclonic curvature. The area is currently (21/03Z) focused at 22N 95.5W and has a general motion to the east northeast at 15 knots. The models keep trying to do something with this area and move it along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days.

A strong wave near 19.5N 53W has been moving to the west northwest at 15 knots and continues to support heavy convection. It is also in a downward diurnal cycle at the moment and has the potential for slow development over the next couple of days.

A third wave in the far eastern Atlantic is rather weak and only has limited thunderstorm activity associated with it. It faces an environment that will not promote much development for awhile.

The Atlantic ridge has been weakened and split by a large upper level low in the central north Atlantic. The western segment of the ridge has been displaced somewhat to the south. Northerly shear is in place between 85W and 70W while westerly shear exists between 70W and 60W along and south of 20N. Below 15N there is very little shear from 60W to the African coast.

The basin may currently be inactive in terms of named storms but I don't see that condition lasting for too much longer.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* It Must Be September Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Sep 20 2003 11:35 PM
. * * Pensacola.. in the Gulf.. SunNFun   Thu Sep 25 2003 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Pensacola.. in the Gulf.. stormchazer   Thu Sep 25 2003 09:43 AM
. * * thursday morning HanKFranK   Thu Sep 25 2003 10:02 AM
. * * 99 looks sort of like a done deal LoisCane   Thu Sep 25 2003 10:35 AM
. * * Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal stormchazer   Thu Sep 25 2003 10:58 AM
. * * TD 15 LI Phil   Thu Sep 25 2003 11:03 AM
. * * Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal stormchazer   Thu Sep 25 2003 10:46 AM
. * * Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal HanKFranK   Thu Sep 25 2003 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Pensacola.. in the Gulf.. LoisCane   Thu Sep 25 2003 08:37 AM
. * * Re: It Must Be September Beach   Wed Sep 24 2003 10:06 AM
. * * wave out there LoisCane   Wed Sep 24 2003 11:50 AM
. * * Re: It Must Be September stormchazer   Wed Sep 24 2003 10:25 AM
. * * Andi... Steve   Wed Sep 24 2003 10:34 AM
. * * South of Cuba troy2   Wed Sep 24 2003 11:29 AM
. * * Re: South of Cuba Steve   Wed Sep 24 2003 11:34 AM
. * * Re: South of Cuba troy2   Wed Sep 24 2003 11:49 AM
. * * Re: wet Fla. weekend? Tropics Guy   Wed Sep 24 2003 12:34 PM
. * * Re: wet Fla. weekend? HanKFranK   Wed Sep 24 2003 01:19 PM
. * * Telekineesis and the 2 areas of convection LoisCane   Wed Sep 24 2003 01:42 PM
. * * Re: 98L Tropics Guy   Wed Sep 24 2003 01:55 PM
. * * Re: 98L LI Phil   Wed Sep 24 2003 02:29 PM
. * * Re: 98L Tropics Guy   Wed Sep 24 2003 02:36 PM
. * * Re: 98L LI Phil   Wed Sep 24 2003 02:41 PM
. * * Re: 98L Tropics Guy   Wed Sep 24 2003 02:50 PM
. * * Re: 98L stormchazer   Wed Sep 24 2003 03:24 PM
. * * Back Kevin   Wed Sep 24 2003 04:20 PM
. * * Isn't it funny? LoisCane   Wed Sep 24 2003 05:29 PM
. * * 5:30 TWO LI Phil   Wed Sep 24 2003 05:38 PM
. * * 98L Cycloneye   Wed Sep 24 2003 06:48 PM
. * * Re: 98L HanKFranK   Wed Sep 24 2003 06:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L islander   Wed Sep 24 2003 08:09 PM
. * * Re: 98L 57497479   Thu Sep 25 2003 06:09 AM
. * * mjo HanKFranK   Wed Sep 24 2003 06:57 PM
. * * two now HanKFranK   Wed Sep 24 2003 06:52 PM
. * * Wet weekend in S. Fla.? Brad in Miami   Wed Sep 24 2003 05:28 PM
. * * Re: South of Cuba stormchazer   Wed Sep 24 2003 11:39 AM
. * * experimental forcast AlexK   Mon Sep 22 2003 05:45 PM
. * * Re: experimental forcast stormchazer   Mon Sep 22 2003 06:55 PM
. * * Re: experimental forcast Tropics Guy   Mon Sep 22 2003 08:37 PM
. * * new tropical wave AlexK   Sun Sep 21 2003 09:59 PM
. * * the Wave is there... LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2003 10:56 PM
. * * Re: the Wave is there... Domino   Sun Sep 21 2003 11:04 PM
. * * Re: the Wave is there... Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 21 2003 11:37 PM
. * * Re: the Wave is there... 57497479   Mon Sep 22 2003 05:23 AM
. * * Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) Domino   Mon Sep 22 2003 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) Kimster   Mon Sep 22 2003 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 22 2003 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) LI Phil   Tue Sep 23 2003 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) Kimster   Tue Sep 23 2003 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) LI Phil   Tue Sep 23 2003 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) Kimster   Tue Sep 23 2003 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 23 2003 07:47 PM
. * * Objective (!) look at my seasonal forecast to date: Steve   Tue Sep 23 2003 09:38 PM
. * * Hey Bobbi... Steve   Tue Sep 23 2003 11:42 PM
. * * Hey Steve LoisCane   Wed Sep 24 2003 04:30 AM
. * * Re: Hey Steve 57497479   Wed Sep 24 2003 07:15 AM
. * * Yeah...Bastardi has been screaming Florida all summer LoisCane   Wed Sep 24 2003 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Yeah...Bastardi has been screaming Florida all summer andy1tom   Wed Sep 24 2003 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) Kimster   Tue Sep 23 2003 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) LI Phil   Tue Sep 23 2003 12:49 PM
. * * mjo says... HanKFranK   Tue Sep 23 2003 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) LoisCane   Tue Sep 23 2003 09:37 AM
. * * marty, dead atlantic HanKFranK   Mon Sep 22 2003 09:01 AM
. * * Re: marty, dead atlantic HanKFranK   Mon Sep 22 2003 09:03 AM
. * * More Photos MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 22 2003 02:22 PM
. * * Re: More Photos LoisCane   Mon Sep 22 2003 09:37 PM
. * * Re: More Photos Storm Cooper   Mon Sep 22 2003 05:26 PM
. * * 1997 slow season LoisCane   Mon Sep 22 2003 09:58 AM
. * * Re: 1997 slow season stormchazer   Mon Sep 22 2003 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 1997 slow season Steve   Mon Sep 22 2003 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty ....dont think you guys get it here LoisCane   Mon Sep 22 2003 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific) recmod   Mon Sep 22 2003 08:11 AM
. * * gonna look Alex but LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2003 10:28 PM
. * * Pressures and wind AlexK   Sun Sep 21 2003 07:00 PM
. * * clouds in the gulf LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2003 08:05 PM
. * * Re: clouds in the gulf 57497479   Sun Sep 21 2003 08:20 PM
. * * Re: It Must Be September MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 21 2003 06:24 PM
. * * Re: That GOM disturbed weather Mary K.   Sun Sep 21 2003 06:40 PM
. * * Gulf stuff AlexK   Sun Sep 21 2003 05:34 PM
. * * gulf bouy observations AlexK   Sun Sep 21 2003 02:55 PM
. * * Re: It Must Be September lorio   Sun Sep 21 2003 09:18 AM
. * * Re: It Must Be September Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 21 2003 09:40 AM
. * * Re: It Must Be September 57497479   Sun Sep 21 2003 10:36 AM
. * * Re: It Must Be September Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 21 2003 11:12 AM
. * * Re: It Must Be September 57497479   Sun Sep 21 2003 11:56 AM
. * * September Remember LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2003 01:18 PM

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