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A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 74 (Nicholas) , Major: 90 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1144 (Michael) Major: 1144 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Nicholas Revisited
      Fri Oct 31 2003 08:18 PM

The stubborn swirl that just wouldn't go away! After taking a slow grand tour of a good portion of the mid Atlantic real estate over the past couple of weeks, the remnants of Nicholas are still hanging on - and perhaps heading toward south Florida. The remnant low is quite weak but it persists - other more significant swirls have withered quickly...but not Nicholas.

Models, both tropical and global, have been remarkably consistent over the past few days in maintaining this system and moving it southwestward in the short term and westward in the mid term toward Florida - anywhere from the mid peninsula south to the Straits. Over the past 24 hours the Nicholas low level swirl has been in a rather tight anticyclonic loop. The low seems to have completed the loop and is now moving slowly southwestward. Some of the models keep a slow movement for yet another 24 hours before moving it rapidly toward south Florida.

Upper-level southwesterly shear has kept the convection well removed to the northeast of the center. Building high pressure to the north of the low should relax the shear by Saturday evening. The system will be heading into warmer waters so the intensification factor cannot be ignored. SHIPS has varied between 45 and 55 knots for the past couple of days. If the convection does not build back into the core, the low will remain a hybrid system, but a hybrid subtropical storm is not out of the question. Even if it is not reclassified, the pressure gradient will continue gusty northeast to east winds over the Florida east coast late Sunday through Monday. Regarding reclassification, if it does regain Depression status, I think that the name will again be Nicholas, especially since NRL Monterey has it on their board again as Nicholas.

What a long and interesting season this has been - I think that everyone (myself included) was worn out a few weeks ago. But we've had some rest and now we've got something old to re-watch this weekend.
ED


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nicholas Revisited Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Oct 31 2003 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited stormchazer   Mon Nov 03 2003 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited SunNFun   Mon Nov 03 2003 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited Mary K.   Mon Nov 03 2003 11:55 AM
. * * recon Brad in Miami   Mon Nov 03 2003 02:14 PM
. * * Re: recon Brad in Miami   Mon Nov 03 2003 03:11 PM
. * * Re: recon Brad in Miami   Mon Nov 03 2003 03:42 PM
. * * Re: recon mbfly   Mon Nov 03 2003 04:05 PM
. * * Re: recon Steve   Mon Nov 03 2003 06:58 PM
. * * Hey Steve WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Nov 03 2003 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Hey Steve javlin   Mon Nov 03 2003 09:52 PM
. * * Improving satellite signature Rich B   Tue Nov 04 2003 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Improving satellite signature Brad in Miami   Tue Nov 04 2003 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Improving satellite signature Brad in Miami   Tue Nov 04 2003 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Improving satellite signature javlin   Tue Nov 04 2003 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Improving satellite signature Brad in Miami   Tue Nov 04 2003 12:39 PM
. * * Vortex data message Brad in Miami   Tue Nov 04 2003 01:06 PM
. * * Second vortex data message Brad in Miami   Tue Nov 04 2003 03:25 PM
. * * all of you LoisCane   Tue Nov 04 2003 05:15 PM
. * * Re: all of you Steve H.   Tue Nov 04 2003 10:31 PM
. * * Re: all of you HanKFranK   Wed Nov 05 2003 02:54 AM
. * * Re: all of you Mary K.   Wed Nov 05 2003 08:17 AM
. * * south of cuba LoisCane   Wed Nov 05 2003 12:24 PM
. * * Re: south of cuba SunNFun   Thu Nov 06 2003 02:21 PM
. * * Interesting info... LI Phil   Thu Nov 06 2003 03:17 PM
. * * heat HanKFranK   Wed Nov 05 2003 03:20 PM
. * * Re: models javlin   Wed Nov 05 2003 06:29 PM
. * * Re: models Steve   Thu Nov 06 2003 12:29 AM
. * * CMC model LoisCane   Thu Nov 06 2003 10:47 AM
. * * Re: models Unregistered User   Thu Nov 06 2003 10:26 AM
. * * Hey Swede... Steve   Thu Nov 06 2003 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Hey Swede... Steve   Thu Nov 06 2003 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Hey Swede... Steve   Thu Nov 06 2003 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Hey Swede... LI Phil   Thu Nov 06 2003 10:50 PM
. * * The Rules of Engagement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Nov 06 2003 11:25 PM
. * * Re: The Rules of Engagement LoisCane   Mon Nov 10 2003 12:20 PM
. * * Low pressure center forming in Caribbean? Brad in Miami   Mon Nov 10 2003 02:26 PM
. * * It's now -97 Invest Brad in Miami   Mon Nov 10 2003 02:28 PM
. * * Re: It's now -97 Invest Brad in Miami   Mon Nov 10 2003 02:28 PM
. * * RECON LI Phil   Mon Nov 10 2003 02:40 PM
. * * About as colorful as a Puerto Rican Parrot right now LoisCane   Mon Nov 10 2003 02:45 PM
. * * ps water temps LoisCane   Mon Nov 10 2003 02:49 PM
. * * Models LI Phil   Mon Nov 10 2003 04:03 PM
. * * Odette's Engagement?? LoisCane   Mon Nov 10 2003 05:13 PM
. * * What's next... LI Phil   Mon Nov 10 2003 05:22 PM
. * * POOR PETER LoisCane   Mon Nov 10 2003 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Models k___g   Mon Nov 10 2003 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Models HanKFranK   Mon Nov 10 2003 06:37 PM
. * * Last Invest of 2003? stormchazer   Mon Nov 10 2003 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Last Invest of 2003? Cycloneye   Mon Nov 10 2003 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Thingy South of Jamaica Mary K.   Thu Nov 06 2003 09:19 AM
. * * Re: all of you stormchazer   Wed Nov 05 2003 09:21 AM
. * * Re: Vortex data message Brad in Miami   Tue Nov 04 2003 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Improving satellite signature Steve   Tue Nov 04 2003 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Improving satellite signature SunNFun   Tue Nov 04 2003 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Improving satellite signature javlin   Tue Nov 04 2003 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited Mary K.   Mon Nov 03 2003 10:47 AM
. * * FLL Conditions #1 jlauderdal   Sun Nov 02 2003 11:01 AM
. * * Re: FLL Conditions #1 jlauderdal   Sun Nov 02 2003 01:06 PM
. * * Re: FLL Conditions #1 Mary K.   Sun Nov 02 2003 01:19 PM
. * * Re: FLL Conditions #1 rmbjoe1954   Sun Nov 02 2003 03:07 PM
. * * Re: FLL Conditions #1 Steve   Sun Nov 02 2003 04:28 PM
. * * Re: FLL Conditions #1 57497479   Sun Nov 02 2003 04:51 PM
. * * Boynton Beach Conditions WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Nov 02 2003 06:19 PM
. * * Kevin, Steve & Wxman Richie LI Phil   Sun Nov 02 2003 08:58 PM
. * * Re: FLL Conditions #1 Kevin   Sun Nov 02 2003 04:44 PM
. * * Re: FLL Conditions #1 Kevin   Sun Nov 02 2003 04:46 PM
. * * Boynton Beach Conditions WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Nov 02 2003 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Boynton Beach Conditions jlauderdal   Sun Nov 02 2003 01:55 PM
. * * Nicholas Again? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Nov 01 2003 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Again? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Nov 02 2003 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Again? SunNFun   Mon Nov 03 2003 02:20 AM
. * * Storm Totals WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Nov 03 2003 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Storm Totals 57497479   Mon Nov 03 2003 05:50 AM
. * * Re: Storm Totals SunNFun   Mon Nov 03 2003 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Storm Totals javlin   Mon Nov 03 2003 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Again? Rich B   Sat Nov 01 2003 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Again? Steve H.   Sat Nov 01 2003 08:00 PM
. * * A storm for Florida? WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Nov 01 2003 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited javlin   Sat Nov 01 2003 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited k___g   Fri Oct 31 2003 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited 57497479   Sat Nov 01 2003 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited Storm Cooper   Sat Nov 01 2003 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited 57497479   Sat Nov 01 2003 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited Mary K.   Sat Nov 01 2003 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited 57497479   Sun Nov 02 2003 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited Steve   Sun Nov 02 2003 02:34 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited 57497479   Sun Nov 02 2003 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited Storm Cooper   Sun Nov 02 2003 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited 57497479   Sun Nov 02 2003 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited javlin   Sun Nov 02 2003 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited SunNFun   Sun Nov 02 2003 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited rmbjoe1954   Sun Nov 02 2003 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Nicholas Revisited SunNFun   Sat Nov 01 2003 11:33 PM
. * * We're watching LoisCane   Sat Nov 01 2003 10:28 PM

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