Just a 'mixed bag' of comments on the Atlantic basin and its potential for future activity. At the moment there are no real development areas although the old Invest 95L tropical wave remains active and has maintained its structure. At 10/19Z the wave extended from 16N 56W to 19.5N 53W and it was moving westward at 15-20mph. Although there is a slim chance for future development, current organization is poor. On Monday afternoon, the wave will encounter increasing southwesterly shear south of Puerto Rico.
In the western Gulf of Mexico a tropical wave is interacting with a weak upper level low near 23N 93W (at 10/18Z). Diverging air to the north is aiding the development of afternoon convection however the system is disorganized and additional development is not likely. The system is moving to the west northwest at 20-25mph and will bring squalls to south Texas and northeast Mexico.
The eastern Atlantic is dominated by high pressure with strong ridging to the south of the high center. This pattern has kept the ITCZ far to the south of its expected position for this time of the year. The ITCZ extends west southwestward from the west African coast to 4N 43W. Strong waves that exit the west African coast are shoved southwestward and cannot develop to any significant degree until they get west of 50W. Hurricane Carol in 1953 is a good example of this pattern.
Regarding the potential for a near term 'first storm of the season', only 7 'first storms' have developed during the period from 07/06 through 07/26 over the past 100 years - not very good odds. The last one was TS Arthur on 07/14/2002.
With the current ITCZ position and the current ENSO pattern, 1953 is looking more like a classic analog year (go take a peek at Dr Gray's latest analog years). I realize that 1953 did have TS Alice form in May (05/25), however many of you did feel that we had an early season Caribbean system this year. The next 1953 system was Hurricane Barbara which formed on 08/11. The storm totals for 1953 were 14/6/4 - with 6 U.S. landfalls. So far at least, the general pattern for this season seems to mirror 1953.
Cheers,
ED
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